A station-data-based model residual machine learning method for fine-grained meteorological grid prediction

摘要

Fine-grained weather forecasting data,i.e.,the grid data with high-resolution,have attracted increasing attention in recent years,especially for some specific applications such as the Winter Olympic Games.Although European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)provides grid prediction up to 240 hours,the coarse data are unable to meet high requirements of these major events.In this paper,we propose a method,called model residual machine learning(MRML),to generate grid prediction with high-resolution based on high-precision stations forecasting.MRML applies model output machine learning(MOML)for stations forecasting.Subsequently,MRML utilizes these forecasts to improve the quality of the grid data by fitting a machine learning(ML)model to the residuals.We demonstrate that MRML achieves high capability at diverse meteorological elements,specifically,temperature,relative humidity,and wind speed.In addition,MRML could be easily extended to other post-processing methods by invoking different techniques.In our experiments,MRML outperforms the traditional downscaling methods such as piecewise linear interpolation(PLI)on the testing data.