In this paper, with the theory of nonlinear dynamic systems, It is analyzed that the dynamic behavior and the predictabilityfor the monthly mean variationsof the sunspot relative number recorded from January 1891 to December 1996. Inthe progress, the fractal dimension (D = 3. 3±0. 2) for the variation process wascomputed. This helped us to determine the embedded dimension [2×D + 1] = 7.By computing the Lyapunov index (λ1 = 0. 863), it was indicated that the variationprocess is a chaotic system. The Kolmogorov entropy (K = 0.0260) was also computed, which provides, theoretically, the predicable time scale. And at the end,according to the result of the analysis above, an experimental predication is made,whose data was a part cut from the sample data.
展开▼
