气候变化对棉盲蝽象发生程度的影响

摘要

[Objective] The aim was to analyze effect of climate change on occurrence degree of cotton Lugus lucorum in coastal areas of Jiangsu Province, in order to provide authentic references for better prevention. [Method] Statistical analysis was conducted on Information about occurrence degree of cotton Lugus lucorum in Binhai County in Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2007 under guidance of Integral regression method. [Result] Because of climate change, cotton Lugus lucorum occurrence de- grees differed in different generations and growth stages in Binhai County. Tempera- ture and humidity constituted the main climate factors. In general, climate change hindered occurrence degree from increasing. We could make use of the period when occurrence degree of cotton Lugus lucorum is prone to significant increase and choose some periods, such as early April, late June and middle August, to improve prevention effect. In addition, attention should be paid to comprehensive measures, such as adjustment of industrial structure, which will reduce pesticide and minimize cotton Lugus lucorum damage and adverse impact from prevention measures. [Conclusion] The results provided authentic references for cotton Lugus lucorum preven- tion in Jiangsu coastal areas.%[目的]分析气候变化对江苏沿海地区棉盲蝽象发生程度的影响，以期为该地区棉盲椿象的防治提供有力依据，提高防治效果。[方法]利用积分回归的方法，对江苏省滨海县1985～2007年棉盲蝽象发生程度资料进行了统计分析。[结果]滨海县气候变化引起棉盲蝽象发生程度的变化在棉盲蝽象的不同世代或同一世代的不同生育阶段是不同的，气候条件中的温度和湿度条件对棉盲蝽象发生程度的影响较其他要素更明显，气候变化总体上是不利于棉盲蝽象发生程度增强的。利用棉盲蝽象发生程度易随气候变化显著增加时段，如：4月上中旬、6月下旬至8月上旬等进行防治能显著提高防治效果，同时结合产业结构调整等综合措施进行防治，能够实现减少农药使用量、使棉盲蝽象危害程度最低以及防治措施对环境负面影响小的目标。[结论]该研究结果为江苏沿海地区棉盲椿象的防治提供了有力依据。