河北省三大棉区气候周期及突变特征分析

摘要

Using the daily climatic data of 15 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010 in cotton-growing areas of Hebei Province,has analyzed the climatic period wave and abrupt changing point in different cotton areas .The result showed that:The temperature,rainfall and sunshine jn whole cotton growing season equally existed the periodic changing characteristics of multi-time scale in different cotton-growing areas,and alternate phenomenon was obvious .The decade and interannual main periods of mean temperature during whole growth stage were:In Jinan and Jizhong cotton areas were 20 to 22 yaers,9 to 10 years and 5 to 7 years .In Jidong cotton area was 22 to 24 years and 1 1 to 14 years .The mean temperature in whole growth period was obvious increase and in 1996 was occurred the abrupt change to turn into the rela-tive higher period .The main period of precipitation in whole growing stage was:In Jinan cotton area was 14 to 15 years, and in Jizhong and Jidong cotton areas were 22 to 24 years and 8 to 10 years .The sunshine in whole growth stage existed the climatic period wave of 9 to 10 years also before and after 1986 occurred the abrupt change to turn into the relative less period .%利用河北省棉区1961-2010年15个站点逐日气象资料，分析了河北省不同棉区气候周期振荡及突变点，结果表明：不同棉区棉花全生育期气温、降水、日照均存在多个时间尺度的周期变化特征，交替现象明显；全生育期平均气温年代际以及年际主要周期：冀南、冀中棉区为20～22 a、9～10 a、5～7 a，冀东棉区为22～24 a、11～14 a，全生育期平均气温升高明显，在1996年发生了突变，转入气温相对较高期。全生育期降水主要周期：冀南棉区为14～15 a，冀中、冀东棉区为22～24 a、8～10 a。全生育期日照存在9～10 a振荡周期，且1986年前后发生突变，转入相对偏少期。