改进的 TO PSIS 模型在陕西省农业干旱脆弱性区划中的应用

摘要

以陕西10个地市作为研究对象，从暴露性、敏感性以及恢复能力三个方面选取12个指标构建农业干旱脆弱性评价指标体系，应用改进的TOPSIS模型计算得出各市区的相对贴近度，对陕西省农业干旱脆弱性进行综合评价。结果表明：陕西省农业干旱脆弱性存在地域性差异，10个市区的农业干旱脆弱性由高到低排序依次为安康（0．7841）＞商洛（0．7650）＞汉中（0．6939）＞西安（0．5977）＞榆林（0．4657）＞延安（0．4605）＞渭南（0．4555）＞铜川（0．4319）＞宝鸡（0．3525）＞咸阳（0．2996），整体呈现“南高北低”的分布格局；从暴露性来看，陕西省农业干旱暴露性指数最高为渭南，其次为咸阳和西安，其它市区均较低；从敏感性来看，陕西省农业干旱敏感性分布两极分化严重，主要表现为陕南地区敏感性总体偏高，关中地区和陕北地区除铜川市和延安市敏感性较高外，均处于较低水平；从恢复能力来看，陕西省农业干旱的恢复力分布无明显规律，按其恢复力由高到底排序依次为：延安＞渭南＞榆林＞咸阳＞西安＞铜川＞宝鸡＞汉中＞安康＞商洛。改进的TOPSIS模型能较合理地从整体上对农业干旱脆弱性进行评价分区，符合实际情况，为其他多属性综合评价提供了一个新的思路和算法。%Taking 10 regions of Shaanxi Province as the study objects ,and selecting 12 indexes including exposure , sensitivity and resilience ,we established the index evaluation system of agricultural drought vulnerability .In addition , the relative similarity degree of different regions was calculated using the improved TOPSIS model .Based on the calcula-tion results , we obtained the comprehensive evaluation of agricultural drought vulnerability in Shaanxi . The results showed that :Agricultural drought vulnerability in Shaanxi existed regional disparity .The agricultural drought vulnerabili-ty according to the order from high to low in the 10 regions were :Ankang (0 .7841 )>Shangluo (0 .7650 )>Hanzhong (0 .6939)>Xi’an (0 .5977)>Yulin (0 .4657)>Yan’an (0 .4605)>Weinan (0 .4555)> Tongchuan (0 .4319)>Baoji (0 .3525)>Xianxang (0 .2996) ,and the agricultural drought vulnerability in the southern part were higher than the north part .From the view of exposure ,the highest index in Shaanxi was WeiNan ,followed by Xianyang and Xi’an , being lower in other regions .On the basis of sensitivity ,the polarization was serious ,which was mainly manifested that the sensitivity was high in southern Shaanxi Province ,and low in northern Shaanxi Province and Guanzhong area except Tongchuan and Yan’an .According to resilience ,the distribution of agricultural drought in Shaanxi had no obvious regu-larity ,showing an order of :Yan’an>Weinan>Yulin>Xianyang>Xi’an>Tongchuan>Baoji>Hanzhong>Ankang>Shangluo .Finally ,it is concluded that the improved TOPSIS modle could generally evaluate the agricultural drought vul-nerability reasonablely ,agreeing with the actual situation and thus providing a new method for other multi-attribute evalu-ation .