基于业务持续性的航空公司机务维修安全评估

摘要

To reduce the risk of airline accident rate,proposing the base of business continuity manage-ment theory to establish a risk assessment system of airlines′maintenance. From five aspects of people, hardware,environment,emergency rescue and software to establish a risk assessment system,according to the risk assessment system to set up Bayesian network, use history of airline safety maintenance status quantitative data as the training parameters. Based on the established evaluation model for the safety as-sessment and sensitivity analysis,experiment shows that this method can forecast risky development trend, reduce the incidence of accidents effectively,and provide scientific basis for safe operation of the airlines.%为降低航空公司的事故率，提出基于业务持续性的航空公司机务维修安全评估方法。从人件、硬件、环境、应急救援和软件5个方面来建立风险评估体系，根据风险评估体系建立贝叶斯网络模型，利用能够反映航空公司安全维修状况的历史定量数据作为训练参数。在建立起评估模型的基础上，对航空公司的机务维修进行安全评估和敏感性分析。实验证明，方法能预测风险发展趋势，有效地降低事故发生率，为航空公司的安全运行提供科学依据。