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Statistical Procedures for Estimating and Detecting Climate Changes

机译:估算和发现气候变化的统计程序

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This paper provides a concise description of the philosophy, mathematics, and algorithms for estimating,detecting, and attributing climate changes. The estimation follows the spectral method by using empirical orthogonal functions, also called the method of reduced space optimal averaging. The detection follows the linear regression method, which can be found in most textbooks about multivariate statistical techniques.The detection algorithms are described by using the space-time approach to avoid the non-stationarity problem. The paper includes (1) the optimal averaging method for minimizing the uncertainties of the global change estimate, (2) the weighted least square detection of both single and multiple signals, (3)numerical examples, and (4) the limitations of the linear optimal averaging and detection methods.
机译:本文简要介绍了用于估算,发现和归因于气候变化的哲学,数学和算法。该估计遵循通过使用经验正交函数的频谱方法,也称为缩减空间最佳平均的方法。该检测遵循线性回归方法,该方法在大多数有关多元统计技术的教科书中都可以找到。使用时空方法描述检测算法以避免非平稳性问题。本文包括(1)最小化整体变化估计值不确定性的最佳平均方法;(2)单个和多个信号的加权最小二乘检测;(3)数值示例;(4)线性限制最佳的平均和检测方法。

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