Analyses of Extreme Climate Events over China Based on CMIP5 Historical and Future Simulations

摘要

Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) models, climatic extremes and their changes over China in the past and under the future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs) are analyzed. In observations, frost days(FD) and low-temperature threshold days(TN10P) show a decreasing trend, and summer days(SU), high-temperature threshold days(TX90P), heavy precipitation days(R20), and the contribution of heavy precipitation days(P95T) show an increasing trend. Most models are able to simulate the main characteristics of most extreme indices. In particular, the mean FD and TX90 P are reproduced the best, and the basic trends of FD, TN10 P, SU and TX90 P are represented. For the FD and SU indexes, most models show good ability in capturing the spatial differences between the mean state of the periods 1986–2005 and 1961–80; however, for other indices, the simulation abilities for spatial disparity are less satisfactory and need to be improved. Under the high emissions scenario of RCP8.5,the century-scale linear changes of the multi-model ensemble(MME) for FD, SU, TN10 P, TX90 P, R20 and P95 T are-46.9,46.0,-27.1, 175.4, and 2.9 days, and 9.9%, respectively; and the spatial change scope for each index is consistent with the emissions intensity. Due to the complexities of physical process parameterizations and the limitation of forcing data, great uncertainty still exists with respect to the simulation of climatic extremes.