Paleoclimate Modeling in China: A Review

摘要

This paper provides a review of paleoclimate modeling activities in China. Rather than attempt to cover all topics, we have chosen a few climatic intervals and events judged to be particularly informative to the international community. In historical climate simulations, changes in solar radiation and volcanic activity explain most parts of reconstructions over the last millennium prior to the industrial era, while atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations play the most important role in the20 th century warming over China. There is a considerable model–data mismatch in the annual and boreal winter temperature change over China during the mid-Holocene [6000 years before present(ka BP)], while coupled models with an interactive ocean generally perform better than atmospheric models. For the Last Glacial Maximum(21 ka BP), climate models successfully reproduce the surface cooling trend over China but fail to reproduce its magnitude, with a better performance for coupled models. At that time, reconstructed vegetation and western Pacific sea surface temperatures could have significantly affected the East Asian climate, and environmental conditions on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau were most likely very different to the present day. During the late Marine Isotope Stage 3(30–40 ka BP), orbital forcing and Northern Hemisphere glaciation, as well as vegetation change in China, were likely responsible for East Asian climate change. On the tectonic scale,the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau uplift, the Tethys Sea retreat, and the South China Sea expansion played important roles in the formation of the East Asian monsoon-dominant environment pattern during the late Cenozoic.