生态模型在渔业管理中的应用

摘要

The ecological effects of fisheries and other human activities are increasingly concerned with the better un-derstanding of marine ecosystems.Consequently,the concept of "ecosystem-based fisheries management"(EBFM) have been widely accepted by a range of researchers and institutes,for which ecological models have contributed to the basis of scientific methods and useful tools.Comparing to the singe-species assessment models,ecological mod-els are superior in handling various ecological processes and mechanisms,habitat and environmental changes,and the structure and functions of ecosystems.Ecological models diversify in modeling objectives,mechanistic proces-ses,model structure and parameters,and this study classified prevalent models into three categories on the basis of their ecological levels and components:multispecies models,community structure models and ecosystem models. We elaborated the advantages and disadvantages for each category of ecological models separately.We briefly intro-duced their potential use in guiding fisheries management on the basis of management strategy evaluation (MSE), and the caveats in model selection,building and implementation.Furthermore,we discussed the future develop-ment of ecological modeling in reducing uncertainty and improve predictability.%随着人们对于海洋生态的认识逐渐深入,渔业等人类活动的影响受到了更多的关注,"基于生态系统的渔业管理"(EBFM)这一概念被越来越多的研究者和国际组织所接受.生态模型为EBFM的实践提供了科学的评估方法和技术工具.与单鱼种评估模型相比,生态模型更多地考虑了系统内的各种生态过程和作用机制,栖息地等环境条件的变化,以及生态系统整体的结构和功能等,依此来反映生态系统的动态变化.由于生态模型是多样化的,关注和涉及不同的目标对象、机制过程、模型结构和参数,本文按照生态模型所关注的生态层次和组分将其分为多物种模型、群落结构模型和生态系统模型3个类型,分析了各类模型的优劣点.本文进一步阐述了生态模型在渔业管理中的应用领域,以管理策略评估为中心的应用方式,以及实践中模型选择和构建所需要注意的问题,还探讨了生态模型中降低不确定性和提高预测能力的方法.