针对冀中平原深部地下热水资源可更新性问题，以辛集馆陶组地下热水系统为例，采用相同开采强度下地下热水位降幅异常变化的识别方法，通过2000年以来该地下热水位年际及月际降幅与开采量和上游山区年降水量之间响应变化特征研究，结果表明：(1)冀中平原辛集地区馆陶组地下热水资源具有一定的可更新能力，与上游山区年降水量变化相关，还与地下水位埋深、当年开采引起的水位降幅大小和开采疏干层位砾粗砂岩及细砂岩占比状况有关；(2)辛集地区馆陶组地下热水大规模开采，是该地下水系统获得上游区侧向流入补给的必要条件，属于开采激发型补给，更新补给的资源数量有限；(3)从2000年以来该区地下热水水位动态变化趋势来看，目前该区地下热水资源已处于超采状态，需要压采或人工回灌增大补给，否则难以可持续开发利用。%To tackle the problem of the geothermal water resources updatable characteristics in the Guantao Formation of the middle Hebei plain, the authors adopted the identification method of abnormal variation of the geothermal water level under the same pumping intensity to study the characteristics of annual and monthly decline of the geothermal water level in response to the pumping and annual precipitation in the upper reaches of the geothermal water system since 2000. Some conclusions have been reached: (1) The geothermal water resources of Guantao Formation has a certain renewable capability, which is related to such factors as the variation of annual precipitation in the upper area of the geothermal water system, the buried depth, the decline range of the geothermal water level, and the ratio between the coarse sandstone and the fine sandstone in the decline range; (2) Large-scale exploitation of the geothermal water in the Guantao Formation is a necessary condition of being recharged from lateral inflow recharge in the upper reaches of the geothermal water system; it belongs to the pumping induced recharge, and the number of the recharge resources is not large; (3) The trend of the geothermal water level since 2000 shows that the geothermal water system has been in overdraft state, and hence it is necessary to increase the supply of pressure or artificial recharge; otherwise, the sustainable development and utilization seem to be very difficult or even impossible.
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