中国粮食产量丰歉气象模型研究(Ⅰ)--粮食总量丰歉模型

摘要

Based on grain yield data of 23 main grain-producing provinces or regions and weather data of 105 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 1995 , 23 meteorological good/bad grain harvest models have been set up .The accuracy of good grain harvest models is 89%(388/436 year-times),that of bad grain harvest models is 84.7%(111/131 year-times), and the total accuracy is 88%(499/567 year-times). Compared with actual total grain yields of 23 provinces/regions， the average accuracy of simulated total grain yields derived from the models　is 97.63%, the minimal and maximal relative errors are 0.23% and 6.4%， respectively.%选取1993～1997年对国家粮食总产量贡献率在1%以上、代表国家粮食总产97.2%的23个省(区)为建模对象,根据这23个省(区)1961～1995年的单产资料及每省3～7个、共105个气象代表站逐旬光温水等气象资料,通过分析气象因子与产量的相关关系,建立了上述23个省(区)粮食单产丰歉的气象模型。模型对23个省(区)35年共436个"丰产年"的拟合准确率为89%(388/436),131个"歉产年"的拟合准确率为84.7%(111/131)。 567个"丰歉年"的总拟合准确率为88% (499/567)。由23个省(区)拟合单产及实际面积得到的拟合总产量与其实际总产量比较,35年平均准确率为97.63%,最小相对误差0.23%,最大相对误差6.4%。