西安市近20年来耕地变化及影响因素研究

摘要

Based on the statistical data of economy, population, urbanization and climate of Xian city from 1990 to 2009, the author analyzed the cultivated land changes and its influential factors. The results indicated that the cultivated land area showed a decreasing trend in recent 20 years, and it could be divided into three stages: the sustained reduction period, the first increasing and then reducing period, and the slow decreasing period. The area of cultivated land was decreased at the rate of 4040 hm per year. By using grey relational analysis method, the factors affecting the cultivated land change had the following sequence: total population > level of urbanization > climatic factors (air temperature > precipitation) > economic factors (the second industrial production value >GDP).%利用1990～ 2009年西安市耕地面积及这20年的经济、人口、城市化、气候数据,对耕地面积变化及其影响因素进行研究.结果表明,近20年来,西安市的耕地面积呈下降趋势,可分为持续减少期、先增加后减少期、缓慢减少期3个阶段,耕地面积以每年0.4044万hm2的速度减少；运用灰色关联方法对耕地变化进行影响因素分析,得出各因素影响程度从大到小依次为:总人口＞城市化水平＞气候因素(气温＞降水)＞经济因素(第二产业产值＞ GDP).