安徽省经济增长与环境污染水平关系评估

摘要

According to the statistical data of environmental pollution indexes and GDP per capita in Anhui province from 1990 to 2013, this paper established the measurement model of GDP per capita and environmental pollution level ( emission of industrial“three waste”) , and further evaluated and predicted the relationship between GDP growth per capita and emission of industrial“three waste”.It was found that the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in Anhui province was rather special.The GDP per capita-emission of industrial wastewater curve of Anhui province showed the developmental trend of “U-shape plus inverted U-shape”, which was different from the traditional environmental Kuznets Curve .Both the GDP per capita -e-mission of industrial solid waste curve and the GDP per capita -emission of industrial waste gas curve could be simulated by cubic regressive equation , and displayed a monotonous rising tendency at present , but had not reached the turning point .Based on the built regressive models , it was predicted that the emission of industrial solid waste and the emission of industrial waste gas began to reveal a gradual improving trend when the GDP per capita in Anhui province reached 3421 yuan and 5189 yuan respectively .%以安徽省1991～2013年环境污染指标和人均GDP的统计数据，建立了人均GDP与环境污染水平（工业“三废”排放量）之间的计量模型，并在此基础上评估与预测了人均GDP增长与工业“三废”排放量的关系。研究发现，安徽省经济增长与环境污染之间的关系比较特殊。安徽省人均GDP与工业废水排放量曲线不同于传统的环境库兹涅兹曲线，呈现出一种“U型＋倒U型”的发展趋势；人均GDP与工业固体废弃物排放量曲线和人均GDP与工业废气排放量曲线则呈现出一种三次回归方程，目前呈现出单调的增长趋势，且尚未达到转折点。在回归模型的基础上预测安徽省人均GDP分别达到3421元和5189元（1978年价格）时，工业固体废弃物排放量和工业废气排放量将开始分别呈现逐步好转趋势。