针对“棉薯连作轻简化栽培”方式下，冬马铃薯春季破膜放苗期间遭遇的霜冻害损失与结霜期最低气温之间的不对称性，引入草面温度平行资料进行比较分析。结果表明，草面最低温度能更客观地反映马铃薯苗遭受的霜冻害强度，是马铃薯春霜冻害的最佳指标因子。综合分析结霜天气背景，筛选常规天气预报要素，建立了草面最低温度的预报模型，以提高霜冻害强度定量预报的准确性与实用性。诊断分析近57年终霜日期资料结果表明，在全球气候变化的大背景下，近30年该地区终霜日期整体呈提早出现的趋势，部分地区达到线性提早显著水平；少数地区在2000年代中期出现终霜日期提早的突变点，并在2014～2015年突变显著；在终霜期提早凸显的趋势下，晚霜风险依然存在，且周期性振荡不显著。%In the light and simplified cultivation of cotton-potato continuous cropping, there existed a asymmetry between the minimum air temperature in frosting period and the winter potato yield loss caused by frost damage at film-rupturing and transplan-ting stage in spring.Aiming at this problem, we introduced grass surface temperature to study the index factors , forecast method and risk trend of frost damage to winter potato seedlings .The results indicated that the minimum temperature of grass surface could more objectively reflect the frost damage intensity of potato seedlings , and it was the best index factor of potato spring-frost dam-age.The weather background of frosting was comprehensively analyzed, some routine weather elements were screened, and the prediction model using grass surface minimum temperature as predictive factor was established to enhance the accuracy and practi-cability of quantitative prediction of frost damage intensity .The results of diagnostic analysis of latest frost date data in recent 57 years revealed that:under the large background of global climate change , the latest frost date in this region in recent 30 years be-came earlier as a whole, and this ahead trend in some districts reached a significantly linear level.A sudden change point of latest frost date in minority districts appeared in the mid 2000s, and the sudden change was significant during 2014~2015.Under the trend that the latest frost appeared earlier, the late frost risk still existed, and its periodic oscillation was not significant.
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