青海省东部地区近37年冬季冷暖变化特征分析

摘要

通过对青海东部近37年气象要素的分析,明确该区冬季气候冷暖变化特征和趋势,以便应对气候变化,为农牧业生产提供参考.采用青海东部地区11个气象站点1971-2007年的气温、降水气象观测资料,应用线性倾向率配合差异显著性检验方法,分析冬季冷暖变化趋势.结果表明,近37年来东部地区年平均气温逐渐上升,变化倾向率每10 a为0.521℃,平均气温达到5.1℃；特别是冬季气温上升显著,变化倾向率每10a为0.652℃,远高于中国近百年上升水平；而冬季降水量则呈下降趋势,使得冬季气候暖干化现象加重,对农业生产、生态环境以及人们的生活等都产生一定的影响.%This paper analyzes temperature change trend in winter in recent 37 years, Analysis and grasping the trends of temperatures in winter will helps to supply to reference to climate change, agricultural production, social and economic sustainable development. Combined with the linear trend with differences significant test methods, based on the data of temperature and precipitation meteorological observation data collected from 11 meteorological sites in eastern region of Qinghai Province. The results showed that there presents cavitations phenomenon drought-affected in winter in eastern region of Qinghai Province. The average annual temperature change trend rate rises gradually, and the change trend rate is 0. 521 ℃ every ten years. The average temperature reached 5. 1 ℃. Temperature increases significantly in winter, the change trend rate is 0. 652 ℃ every ten years. It is far higher than the increase value of recent 100 years. The precipitation change trend rate decline lead to climate warming in eastern region of Qinghai Province in winter. It produces serious effect to agriculture pro-duction, ecological environment and people's life.