货币创造机制下我国M2/GDP高企原因的实证分析

摘要

In recent years, the M2/GDP in china has achieved a high level, and stays one of the highest in the world. Based on the mechanism of money, this phenomenon is mainly due to the expanding of the monetary base and money multiplier, with multiple factors influencing monetary base and money multiplier. Based on the empirical analysis, the growth of M2/GDP is caused vertically by foreign exchange reserve growth, loan expansion and high investment extensionality; While horizontally it mainly due to high foreign exchange reserves and the loan expansion. In order to reduce the number, government should transform the mode of economic growth, perfect the exchange rate and interest rate formation mechanism of the market, relax controls on capital projects and encourage diversified financing channels.%近年来我国M2/GDP 数值高企，成为世界上最高的国家之一。基于货币创造机制角度，这一现象主要是基础货币与货币乘数的扩大带来的，而影响基础货币和货币乘数的因素是多重的。基于实证分析，纵向来看，M2/GDP增长的原因是外汇储备增长，信贷扩张以及外延性投资过高；横向来看，主要源于外汇储备过高和信贷过度投放。为改善M2/GDP数值高企现象，应及时转变经济增长方式,完善汇率和利率形成的市场机制，放宽资本项目管制并鼓励融资渠道多样化。