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Real-time demand estimation for water distribution systems.

机译:供水系统的实时需求估算。

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摘要

The goal of a water distribution system (WDS) is to supply the desired quantity of fresh water to consumers at the appropriate time. In order to properly operate a WDS, system operators need information about the system states, such as tank water level, nodal pressure, and water quality for the system wide locations. Most water utilities now have some level of SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) systems providing nearly real-time monitoring data. However, due to the prohibitive metering costs and lack of applications for the data, only portions of systems are monitored and the use of the SCADA data is limited. This dissertation takes a comprehensive view of real-time demand estimation in water distribution systems. The goal is to develop an optimal monitoring system plan that will collect appropriate field data to determine accurate, precise demand estimates and to understand their impact on model predictions. To achieve that goal, a methodology for real-time demand estimates and associated uncertainties using limited number of field measurements is developed. Further, system wide nodal pressure and chlorine concentration and their uncertainties are predicted using the estimated nodal demands. This dissertation is composed of three journal manuscripts that address these three key steps beginning with uncertainty evaluation, followed by demand estimation and finally optimal metering layout.;The uncertainties associated with the state estimates are quantified in terms of confidence limits. To compute the uncertainties in real-time alternative schemes that reduce computational efforts while providing good statistical approximations are evaluated and verified by Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The first order second moment (FOSM) method provides accurate variance estimates for pressure; however, because of its linearity assumption it has limited predictive ability for chlorine under unsteady conditions. Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) provides good estimates of prediction uncertainty for chlorine and pressure in steady and unsteady conditions with significantly less effort.;For real-time demand estimation, two recursive state estimators; tracking state estimator (TSE) based on weighted least squares (WLS) scheme and Kalman filter (KF), are applied. In addition, in order to find available field data types for demand estimation, comparative studies are performed using pipe flow rate and nodal pressure head as measurements. To reduce the number of unknowns and make the system solvable, nodes with similar user characteristics are grouped and assumed to have same demand pattern. The uncertainties in state variables are quantified in terms of confidence limits using the approximate methods (i.e., FOSM and LHS). Results show that TSE with pipe flow rates as measurements provide reliable demand estimations. Also, the model predictions computed using the estimated demands match well with the synthetically generated true values.;Field measurements are critical elements to obtaining quality real-time state estimates. However, the limited number of metering locations has been a significant obstacle for the real-time studies and identifying locations to best gain information is critical. Here, an optimal meter placement (OMP) is formulated as a multi-objective optimization problem and solved using a multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) based on Pareto-optimal solutions. Results show that model accuracy and precision should be pursued at the same time as objectives since both measures have trade-off relationship. GA solutions were improvements over the less robust methods or designers' experienced judgment.
机译:水分配系统(WDS)的目标是在适当的时候向消费者提供所需数量的淡水。为了正确操作WDS,系统操作员需要有关系统状态的信息,例如系统范围内的储罐水位,节点压力和水质。现在,大多数自来水公司都具有一定水平的SCADA(监控和数据采集)系统,可提供近乎实时的监测数据。但是,由于计量成本过高和缺乏数据应用,因此仅监视部分系统,并且限制了SCADA数据的使用。本文对配水系统的实时需求估算进行了全面的研究。目标是制定一个最佳的监视系统计划,该计划将收集适当的现场数据以确定准确,精确的需求估算,并了解其对模型预测的影响。为了实现该目标,开发了一种使用数量有限的现场测量数据进行实时需求估算和相关不确定性的方法。此外,使用估计的节点需求量可预测系统范围的节点压力和氯浓度及其不确定性。本文由三篇期刊论文组成,涉及这三个关键步骤,从不确定性评估开始,然后是需求估计,最后是最佳计量布局。;与状态估计有关的不确定性以置信度范围进行量化。为了计算实时替代方案中的不确定性,这些方案可减少计算量,同时提供良好的统计近似性,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟(MCS)进行评估和验证。一阶二阶矩(FOSM)方法可为压力提供准确的方差估计。然而,由于其线性假设,它在不稳定条件下对氯的预测能力有限。拉丁文超立方采样(LHS)可以用较少的精力就稳定和不稳定条件下的氯气和压力的预测不确定性提供良好的估计。对于实时需求估计,有两个递归状态估计器;应用了基于加权最小二乘(WLS)方案和卡尔曼滤波器(KF)的跟踪状态估计器(TSE)。此外,为了找到可用的现场数据类型以进行需求估算,使用管道流速和节点压头作为测量值进行了比较研究。为了减少未知数并使系统可解,对具有相似用户特征的节点进行分组,并假定它们具有相同的需求模式。使用近似方法(即FOSM和LHS),根据置信度限制对状态变量的不确定性进行量化。结果表明,以管道流速作为测量值的TSE提供了可靠的需求估算。同样,使用估计需求计算的模型预测与合成生成的真实值非常匹配。现场测量是获取质量实时状态估计的关键要素。但是,数量有限的测光位置一直是实时研究的重大障碍,因此确定最佳获取信息的位置至关重要。在此,将最优仪表放置(OMP)公式化为多目标优化问题,并使用基于帕累托最优解的多目标遗传算法(MOGA)对其进行求解。结果表明,模型精度和精度应与目标同时追求,因为这两种方法都具有权衡关系。 GA解决方案是对不太可靠的方法或设计师经验丰富的判断的改进。

著录项

  • 作者

    Kang, Doo Sun.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Arizona.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Arizona.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 页码 182 p.
  • 总页数 182
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 建筑科学;
  • 关键词

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