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Estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices and applications to portfolio selection.

机译:高维协方差矩阵的估计及其在投资组合选择中的应用。

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摘要

A fundamental result in quantitative finance is Markowitz's single-period mean-variance portfolio optimization theory that provides optimal asset weights which minimize the variance of the return at a target level of the mean return of the portfolio. This theory assumes known means, variances and covariances of the returns of all assets in the portfolio. Since these are actually unknown and have to be estimated from historical data and since one usually has a large number of assets, resulting in more parameters to be estimated than the sample size, practical implementation of Markowitz's portfolio optimization theory has been a long-standing problem. Different covariance estimators have been proposed in the literature to address this problem. In particular, multi-factor models, shrinkage estimators, thresholding and regularization have been developed as alternatives to the naive sample estimator that has been shown to perform poorly. This thesis first reviews these approaches and proposes a new high-dimensional covariance estimator that can estimate both the covariance matrix and its inverse consistently.; The proposed new estimator is based on the modified Cholesky decomposition of the covariance matrix, and assumes sparsity in this parametrization. It uses a boosting algorithm with a modified Hannan-Quinn-type stopping criterion. For portfolio optimization applications, a factor model can be constructed and the covariance estimator can then be applied to the residuals, and an empirical study shows that this approach outperforms those that use the naive sample covariance matrix or shrinkage estimators. The main theoretical contributions of this thesis are consistency results for the boosting algorithm and stopping criterion and for the new high-dimensional covariance matrix estimator.
机译:量化金融的基本结果是Markowitz的单周期均值方差投资组合优化理论,该理论提供了最佳资产权重,该权重使投资组合均值目标水平上的收益方差最小。该理论假设投资组合中所有资产收益的均值,方差和协方差。由于这些实际上是未知的,必须根据历史数据进行估算,并且由于通常资产数量众多,因此要估算的参数要比样本量多,因此,Markowitz投资组合优化理论的实际实施一直是一个长期存在的问题。 。在文献中已经提出了不同的协方差估计器来解决这个问题。尤其是,已开发出多因素模型,收缩率估计值,阈值和正则化方法来替代天真的样本估计器,后者已被证明表现不佳。本文首先回顾了这些方法,并提出了一种新的高维协方差估计器,该估计器可以一致地估计协方差矩阵及其逆。拟议的新估计器基于协方差矩阵的改进的Cholesky分解,并在此参数化中假设稀疏性。它使用带有改进的Hannan-Quinn型停止准则的加速算法。对于投资组合优化应用程序,可以构建一个因子模型,然后将协方差估计器应用于残差,并且一项经验研究表明,该方法优于那些使用朴素样本协方差矩阵或收缩估计器的方法。本文的主要理论贡献是对boosting算法和停止准则以及新型高维协方差矩阵估计器的一致性结果。

著录项

  • 作者

    Chen, Zehao.;

  • 作者单位

    Stanford University.;

  • 授予单位 Stanford University.;
  • 学科 Statistics.; Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2008
  • 页码 73 p.
  • 总页数 73
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 统计学;财政、金融;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:38:37

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