An integrated approach to coastal community's vulnerability analysis---Case study in Tampa Bay region.

摘要

The rise of sea level, as one of the most obvious and direct impacts of climate change in coastal areas, will cause more inundation and coastal flooding that may threaten the coastal communities. Analyzing coastal communities' vulnerability to sea level rise will provide guidance for adaptation planning. However, previous literature usually ignore the multidimensional nature of vulnerability (Yoon, 2012). This study tries to understand the multidimensional effects sea level rise may have on coastal community by answering the following research questions: How to determine the importance of different measures in integrated vulnerability index? How does coastal communities' overall vulnerability differ over the space and time? How do land use patterns, transportation network characteristics, and demographic factors influence transportation vulnerability to sea level rise? To answer these research questions, this study quantifies coastal community's vulnerability to sea level rise using economic, social, and infrastructure measures at the census block group level. Tampa Bay region in Florida is used as a case study considering data availability and its exposure to coastal disasters. The weight of each indicator in the overall vulnerability index is determined using an improved analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method and expert ratings collected through surveys. A new trip-based vulnerability indexes are proposed to quantify the potential impacts of sea level rise on neighborhood accessibility at the traffic analysis zone level with consideration of trip production and attraction changes caused by sea level rise inundation. Regression models have been used to test the relationship between the accessibility based vulnerability index and local transportation network characteristics, land use pattern, and demographic factors. The vulnerability analyses have identified the most vulnerable census block groups in the region under different sea level rise scenarios. Although social, economic, and infrastructure vulnerabilities are weighted equally in the integrated vulnerability calculation, the influences of social, economic, and infrastructure to integrated vulnerability differ by location and time due to the differences in level of exposure and sensitivities. Risk assessment shows that the case study area should begin to make adaptation plans to help them prepare for significant vulnerability increases that will happen within 15 years (under medium and fast sea level rise scenario) to 25 years (under low sea level rise scenarios).