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Simulation of post-earthquake water supply restoration: Calibration and application.

机译:地震后供水恢复的模拟:校准和应用。

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摘要

The purpose of this thesis is to calibrate and apply a discrete event simulation model of post-earthquake restoration for the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) water supply system. Based on extensive collaboration with LADWP engineers and managers, the model mimics the real-life restoration process in detail, simulating the movement of different types of crews as they inspect, reroute around, isolate, and repair system damage.;The model is run using historic damage and system data from the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Results for the calibration simulations suggest the model is capable of accurately estimating the time and spatial sequence of the restoration.;The model is applied to estimate durations of post-earthquake water supply outages in Los Angeles for five possible earthquakes. The analysis suggests that earthquakes on different faults can cause significant variability in damage as well as the duration of the loss of service.;Finally, the model is used to evaluate the effectiveness of key post-earthquake water supply restoration strategies that the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) plans to use following a major earthquake. The strategies are: (1) maximizing the groundwater pumped into the system, (2) reconnecting some reservoirs that have been removed from the system due to water quality concerns, (3) rationing water use, and (4) all three. For each of five realistic earthquake scenarios the restoration with and without implementation of the key restoration strategies are compared. The results suggest that opening the reservoirs and rationing are effective post-earthquake restoration strategies that would help to minimize the water outages.
机译:本文的目的是校准和应用洛杉矶水电局供水系统地震后恢复的离散事件模拟模型。该模型在与LADWP工程师和管理人员广泛合作的基础上,详细模拟了真实的恢复过程,模拟了不同类型机组人员在检查,重新布线,隔离和修复系统损坏时的动作。 1994年Northridge地震的历史损失和系统数据。校准模拟的结果表明,该模型能够准确估算恢复的时间和空间顺序。该模型用于估算洛杉矶可能发生的五次地震后供水中断的持续时间。分析表明,不同断层的地震可能会导致破坏和服务中断的持续时间发生重大变化。;最后,该模型用于评估洛杉矶部门重要的地震后供水恢复策略的有效性发生大地震后,水电局(LADWP)计划使用。这些策略是:(1)最大化泵入系统的地下水;(2)重新连接一些由于水质问题而已从系统中删除的水库;(3)合理分配用水量;(4)所有这三个。对于五个现实地震场景中的每一个,都比较了采用和不采用关键恢复策略的恢复情况。结果表明,打开水库和定量配给是有效的地震后恢复策略,有助于最大程度地减少水的中断。

著录项

  • 作者

    Brink, Susan A.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Delaware.;

  • 授予单位 University of Delaware.;
  • 学科 Engineering Civil.;Water Resource Management.
  • 学位 M.A.S.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 107 p.
  • 总页数 107
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 建筑科学;
  • 关键词

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