POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS: A STUDY OF THE OVERSEAS PRIVATE INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND PRIVATE FIRMS ENGAGED IN POLITICAL RISK INSURANCE AND MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS.

摘要

The subject of my dissertation centers around the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), an independent U.S. Government agency established under the Foreign Assistance Act of 1969 and which since 1971 has been conducting the national investment guarantee program. Prior to OPIC's functioning, the program was administered by several successive foreign aid agencies. Investment guarantees are basically insurance contracts under which the United States agrees to insure private investors against losses arising from certain political and economic risks.;In addition to setting forth the relevant investment guarantee legislation since 1948 and the history of the precursors of OPIC, my study considers and analyzes such cognate subjects involved in the functioning of OPIC as the nature and theory of political risk and the anti-bribery legislation outlawing questionable payments abroad enacted in 1977-1978. Consideration is also given to proposals for having private insurance companies take over all or part of OPIC's insurance operations; of international and multilateral investment guarantee programs and to those programs similar to OPIC conducted in other countries. Private political risk insurance programs are also discussed.;At the time of its creation, OPIC received a directive to conduct its operations in accordance with sound business management principles on a self-sustaining financial basis "with due regard to principles of risk management" in its insurance operations. Since political risk has been OPIC's life blood, in the final chapter of my work an in-depth analysis is made, inter alia, of the various factors involved in risk management and its relation to insurance; risk classification under insurance theory; definitions and classification of political risks; risk management techniques in relation to political risks; factors to be considered by a potential investor before investing in a host country; methods or formulas ascertaining the relation between risk and return; sources and evaluation of political data by multinational corporations; and the various risk management techniques and evaluation utilized by OPIC in its operations.;Consideration is given to various studies on political stability and its components as well as the utility of these studies in forecasting political instability in particular and international relations in general. The possible effect of political instability on foreign direct investment and sovereign country risk investment is also discussed.;The dissertation consists of eight chapters together with an introduction and conclusion. My eight chapters are entitled as follows: Chapter I: The Investment Guarantee Program of the United States from its Inception until the Creation of OPIC; Chapter II: The Creation of OPIC; Chapter III: OPIC: Its Formative Years; Its Problems in Chile; and the 1973-1974 OPIC Hearings and Amendments Legislation; Chapter IV: OPIC and Privatization; Chapter V: The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Plans, Their Relation to OPIC, and How OPIC Compares with other National and Private Instrument Guarantee Programs; Chapter VI: OPIC: Its Relationship to Anti-Bribery Legislation; the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of 1977; and the Problem of Questionable Payments; Chapter VII: The 1977-1978 OPIC Hearings and Amendatory Legislation with Reflections on Development; Chapter VIII: OPIC and Political Risk Investment Analysis: Identification, Conceptualization, Approaches, Methodologies, and their Relationship to OPIC.;In my conclusion, I evaluate OPIC's programs, political risk analysis in general, and set forth certain suggestions for reform and improvement.