NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES OF THE ARABS AND ISRAEL AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT.

摘要

This dissertation is a development of the M.I.S. thesis that I wrote in 1980 at Claremont. Basically, I will update information about nuclear capabilities and policies of both Israel and the Arab States. Nuclear capability of a country is likely to be of a dynamic nature. Positive and negative change is likely to occur in this particular area every now and then. Since 1980, some considerable changes in the nuclear capabilities of the Arabs and Israel have already taken place.;The dissertation discusses the implications of such capabilities for the ongoing Arab-Israeli conflict within the context of traditional "deterrence"--especially nuclear deterrence--theory. The major focus is on the resulting "balance of terror" and how it is likely to determine the outcome of the Arab-Israeli conflict.;In part 1, a brief survey of the present and planned nuclear power and nuclear-power-related facilities, installations, research institutions, and possible nuclear delivery means possessed by the Arabs and the Israelis is presented. This survey is based only on readily available information.;Part 2 presents an examination of the implications of the introduction of nuclear military capabilities by both sides or either side in the Arab-Israeli conflict. Egypt, with whatever nuclear capability it has, or will have, is considered in this study to be part of the Arab camp even though it has recently signed a separate peace treaty with Israel.;"Nuclear capability" of a country is meant to be present and planned nuclear power and nuclear-power-related facilities, installations, research institutions, and possible delivery means possessed by that country. Such capability can be used for both peaceful and military applications. A country acquiring nuclear technology for peaceful purposes can also acquire the know-how to develop nuclear weapons.;Then, suggestions, based on conclusions and findings are provided to countries involved on how to avoid the catastrophic consequences of introducing nuclear weapons into the Arab-Israeli conflict. In order to avoid catastrophic consequences of introducing nuclear weapons into the Arab-Israeli conflict, it is suggested that there must be a general peace settlement, followed by denuclearization of the Middle East region.