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The political economy of intergenerational transfer payments.

机译:代际转移支付的政治经济学。

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摘要

This dissertation analyzes the interaction between political institutions, intergenerational redistribution policies and demographic transitions.; The first part studies the impact of two voting structures on sustainable fiscal policies. Intergenerational transfers are outcomes of a social security game among selfish median voters. Elections are held every period.; Simple majoritarian systems sustain a large set of subgame perfect equilibrium transfers, including dynamically inefficient, stationary and non stationary ones (fluctuating, cyclical, chaotic), through history-dependent trigger strategies.; To restrict the set of equilibrium allocations, I depart from the existing literature and investigate constitutional "rules" that give minority veto power over fiscal policy changes proposed by the majority. This unanimity provision eliminates all fluctuating and all dynamically inefficient transfers, reducing the equilibrium set to weakly increasing transfer sequences that converge to the golden rule.; In the second part, a 67-period life cycle simulation model is used to study the social security system's policy response, as decided by the majority of the voters under a constitutional "rule" system, to the U.S. demographic changes from 1964 to 1992. A social security system is defined to be politically sustainable if the majority agrees to continue, or increase, the tax rate level inherited from the previous generations, and no veto is posed by the retirees.; The positive level of social security transfer obtained from the simulation is mainly due to two elements: (i) for the majority of the voters, in a forward looking analysis, the social security system represents a profitable investment, if compared to private pension funds; and (ii) the introduction of the system creates general equilibrium effects, as it crowds out capital, thus decreasing wages and increasing returns from capital. In this simulation the combination of these effects is welfare enhancing for the median voter.; The maximum sustainable tax rate is calculated for all presidential election years. I conclude that the existing social security system has been politically sustainable. However, the margin of sustainability has been shrinking as the actual old age survival insurance tax rates have been increasing, from 6.75% to 11.2%, and the maximum tax rate has been decreasing, from 20% to 16.8%.
机译:本文分析了政治制度,代际再分配政策和人口转变之间的相互作用。第一部分研究了两种投票结构对可持续财政政策的影响。代际转移是自私的中位选民进行社会保障游戏的结果。每个时期都举行选举。简单的多数派系统通过依赖于历史的触发策略来维持大量的子博弈完美均衡转移,包括动态效率低下的,平稳的和非平稳的(波动,周期性,混沌)转移。为了限制均衡分配的设置,我脱离了现有文献,研究了宪法“规则”,这些规则赋予了少数派对多数派提出的财政政策变更拥有否决权的权力。这种一致的规定消除了所有波动的和所有动态无效的转移,减少了平衡集,使收敛到黄金法则的转移序列增加得很少。在第二部分中,使用67个周期的生命周期模拟模型来研究社会保障体系的政策对策,这是大多数选民根据宪法“规则”制度决定的,以应对1964年至1992年美国的人口变化。如果大多数人同意继续或增加前几代人继承的税率水平,并且退休人员没有否决权,则社会保障制度在政治上是可持续的。从模拟中获得的社会保障转移的积极水平主要归因于两个因素:(i)对于大多数选民而言,在前瞻性分析中,与私人养老金基金相比,社会保障体系代表了一种有利可图的投资; (ii)引入该制度会产生普遍的均衡效应,因为它将资本挤出,从而降低了工资并增加了资本收益。在此模拟中,这些影响的组合对于中位数选民而言提高了福利。最高可持续税率是针对所有总统选举年计算的。我得出结论,现有的社会保障体系在政治上是可持续的。但是,随着实际的老年生存保险税率从6.75%提高到11.2%,最高税率从20%下降到16.8%,可持续性的幅度一直在缩小。

著录项

  • 作者

    Galasso, Vincenzo.;

  • 作者单位

    University of California, Los Angeles.;

  • 授予单位 University of California, Los Angeles.;
  • 学科 Economics Theory.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1996
  • 页码 104 p.
  • 总页数 104
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 经济学;
  • 关键词

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