Quasi-experimental evidence in valuing nonmarket/public goods: Consistency and behavior of intertemporal bids in contingent valuation techniques.

摘要

The purpose of this investigation is to examine the behavior of CV (Contingent Valuation) bids over multiple time periods through repeated surveys (i.e., repeated games). Standard consumer choice models assume that consumers make informed, rational decisions in arriving at their mix of purchased goods and services subject to their household budget constraint. This decision process, a major premise of economic theory, is based on consumer experience and information acquired over a period of time. If this fundamental premise holds in contingent markets, and for the CV method, then, it is reasonable to expect that economic values (i.e., bids) produced from contingent markets can change over time or bidding periods. Some researchers in fact wonder if bids based on contingent markets will converge to some "true" value over time.;This the first study to rigorously examine whether individuals participating in contingent markets via CV surveys revise their bids if given a long time horizon, and whether individuals' behavior in contingent markets corresponds to that in standard consumer choice theory by using a variety of methods from statistical inference to econometrics and time series techniques. It is also the first study to examine if experimental economics techniques can be used in real-life settings (e.g., experiments of active users of a particular resource/activity based on repeated games), and if the resulting evidence can provide useful information in understanding agents' behavior in contingent markets, and in future advancements of the CV method. Evidence based on quasi-experimental data (repeated games of sport fishermen over a season involving up to 5 repeated surveys/games each corresponding to a month, yielding 5 bidding periods) suggests that experienced, active recreational participants do revise their CV bids over multiple time periods. This could be due to their familiarity with the CV game over time, changes in their tastes and in repeated thinking about their true preferences, and in their success or failure in a particular month. Such findings suggest profound effects on future work in CV methods and in experimental methods that elicit preferences for nonmarket/public type goods.