Anchoring American foreign policy in the absence of a clear and present danger.

摘要

The dissertation was motivated by the belief that American policy makers need to consider trends in the relative power of states to a greater degree than is currently the practice at times when significant threats to national security are absent. It contends that the ongoing debate about the future course of American foreign policy and the current decline in the readiness of the US armed forces are indicators of this need. The dissertation thus seeks to answer the question of how to provide information about relative power in a way that complements existing planning methods in order to improve the formulation of American foreign policy, national security policy, and defense policy.; The dissertation proposes a new neorealist theory of international relations called role realignment theory, which builds on existing cyclic theories. The theory focuses on state foreign policy role, which it divides into four components: ascribed role, which encompasses how other states view a particular state's foreign policy role; declaratory role, which describes how a state views its own foreign policy role; operational role, which incorporates a state's capacity for bringing about desired outcomes on the world stage; and structural role, which describes the level of foreign policy engagement that is in keeping with a state's relative power in the international system. The theory postulates that system instability is, to a significant degree, the result of the ways that states act to eliminate role misalignments.; After assigning measurable proxies for each role component, the dissertation empirically analyzes changes in the role components of several states since the end of the Cold War, with emphasis on the United States. The analysis demonstrates that the role components of the US are currently in alignment. But this condition depends on role misalignments in China, Germany, and Japan that, if eliminated, could destabilize the international system by eroding the US's present commanding leadership position. How this problem of role misalignment ought to be managed concludes the dissertation.