Analysis of agenda -setting patterns and *policy consequences in American drug policies

摘要

This study attempts to explain agenda-setting patterns and policy consequences in American drug policies during the Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Bush, and Clinton administrations. In studying agenda-setting patterns, I introduce two research questions: (1) What makes an issue salient on the policy agenda? (2) Which agenda setter plays a leading role in the agenda-setting process? In addressing the first question, the objectivists posit that drug issues become salient when the severity of drug problems increases. The constructionists counter that drug issues become salient when agenda-setting activities increase regardless of the severity of drug problems. In answering the second question, the pluralists follow traditional democratic political theory and thus assume that the popular agenda setters lead the governmental agenda setters. The elitists emphasize uneven distributions of incentives and resources among the elites and the public and thus posit that the governmental agenda setters lead the popular agenda setters. In order to test these hypotheses, this study employs the Granger causality test and the Multivariate Transfer Function analysis. The analysis results suggested that the Nixon and Clinton administration followed the elitist model of agenda-setting while the Reagan administration demonstrated the pluralistic pattern. The Carter and the Bush administration were not clearly characterized by either the pluralist or the elitist models. A further examination of the Reagan administration suggested that the severity of drug problems also had a significant influence on the salience of drug issues (on the governmental agenda) and thus supported the objectivist hypothesis. These results substantially departed from previous findings in drug policy studies which predominantly supported the constructionist-elitist model of agenda-setting.;In studying policy consequences, this study focuses on examining whether the salience of drug issues on the governmental agenda actually led increases in drug policy outputs (i.e., the total drug-related expenditures). In addition, the directional effects of agenda-setting are examined. The analysis results suggest that the drug agenda process not only influenced the overall policy outputs but also directed policy emphasis on either enforcement or prevention/treatment. The condition of drug problems was also associated with increases in the enforcement and prevention/treatment expenditures as well as overall drug expenditures.