Essays on making decisions on trade quantities, growing new crops in Oklahoma, and selecting a demand functional form.

摘要

Scope and method of study. In the first paper, the utility maximization model is developed to determine optimal quantities for several beef types exported to Japan by incorporating risk attitude of decision-maker and uncertainty into the decision framework. In the second paper, the simulation method used will provide farmers with information about the risk/reward tradeoffs involved in growing new alternative crops versus growing traditional crops in Oklahoma. In the third paper, the Monte Carlo method is constructed to select between two most popular demand system (AIDS and Rotterdam). The validity of demand assumptions (weak separability and demand restrictions), when the incorrect functional form is used, are also examined.;Findings and conclusions. In the first paper, the results showed that the amount of each beef type that a decision-maker would be willing to trade differs according to his/her risk attitude. Risk averse decision-makers prefers less volatile cut of beef, even if it means lower profits, while risk-seeking decision-makers prefers higher profit cut of beef, even if it means higher risk. In the second paper, the results showed that incorporating risk into the expected profit projections is important because crops that provide higher than normal income may also be associated with higher than normal risk. The simulation method used will provide farmers with information about the risk/reward tradeoffs involved in growing the new crops. In the third paper, the results suggested that failing to reject the demand restriction and weak separability hypothesis does not imply that the appropriate functional from was used. Additionally, the results of using Monte Carlo approach for selecting (between the Rotterdam and AIDS models) the appropriate functional form for estimating demand for meat in Japan indicated that the Rotterdam model is more appropriate than AIDS model for estimating demand for meat in Japan.