The efficacy of propaganda in global conflict during the twentieth century: When is propaganda likely to be effective?

摘要

Recognizing that the effectiveness of international propaganda is extremely difficult to measure, this study identifies a methodology to determine when propaganda is likely to be effective. To be effective, propaganda must be delivered, heard, and acted upon. Using documentary sources, memoirs, polling information, and secondary sources one can assess the existence of six contributing factors of propaganda effectiveness: a propaganda organization; the cultural, geographic, or technical ability to penetrate the target; a message of mutual concern to propagandist and target alike; a means of delivery, both covert and overt; a sympathetic audience; and counterpropaganda and countermeasures.; This methodology was applied to the British and German propaganda campaigns over American neutrality in both world wars and the Soviet campaigns against the neutron bomb (ERW) of 1977--1978 and the intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) in Europe of 1979--1983. In World War I, Britain benefited from cultural ties and revelations about German activities. Germany failed to overcome its limited reach or these revelations. World War II campaigns turned out the same with London almost monopolizing the propaganda battle in the United States, while Germany was unable to overcome revelations of Nazi activity. Moscow had an experienced propaganda organization for both campaigns, and did much to reach the sympathetic audience, but its success turned on NATO's counterpropaganda and countermeasures. Each NATO leader hoped another would commit to the ERW first, leaving themselves open to public pressure and Soviet propaganda. Meanwhile, the Soviet INF campaign sought to overturn a decision NATO had already made; a much more difficult prospect.; Several conclusions can be drawn from these campaigns. Organization and the ability to penetrate are necessary for propaganda's delivery, although not guaranteeing its success. The propaganda message provides the tool around which the means of delivery can rally the sympathetic audience, contributing to whether the propaganda is heard and as such encouraging the sympathetic audience to act. While all other contributing factors are designed to reach and influence this audience, countermeasures and counterpropaganda can negate this influence. Such findings indicate that propaganda can be, but is not guaranteed to be, effective.