Countdown toward global war: Coalition, challenge and leadership.

摘要

My query: During the interval of peace that succeeds one global war and precedes the next, what accounts for declining leadership of the victor of global war as "a nation state with great power status in the role of system leader" of the global political system?; The research extends scholarship on the decline of a great power as the victor of global war. A theoretical model specifies the economic processes and the political dynamics that occur in the interval of peace preceding a global war. During this interval, system structure promotes and perpetuates warfare at the apex of the international environment.; A literature review reveals the unaddressed tripartite system function of the victor of global war: a nation state with great power status in the role of system leader. Structural authority for system maintenance is the key systemic attribute acquired by the victor of global war. My theory of structural authority contends that economic and fiscal primacy of the great power as system leader forms the basis for executing global political system leadership. The disintegration of global political system coalition influences the global political system challenge to system leader structural authority and declining system leadership. Responding to leadership decline, global war as a remedial systemic adjustment mechanism renews system leadership.; An econometric model tests the assumptions that disintegrated coalition impacts challenged structural authority and declining system leadership. Coalition is measured by the association between system leader's coalition and contending major powers. Challenge is measured by global political system resistance to the economic and fiscal primacy of the system leader's coalition. Leadership is measured by the naval capability concentration of the system leader's coalition.; H1: As coalition decreases and challenge increases, leadership decreases; H2: As coalition increases and leadership increases, challenge decreases.; Empirical analysis is time series. Data consist of observations (1816--1913) for Great Britain, France, Russia, United States, Germany and Japan. N = 588. A simultaneous-equation system with Two-Stage Least Squares estimation generates significant test results that support the hypothesized theoretical relationships.