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The money-output relationship: A disaggregated approach.

机译:货币产出关系:一种分解的方法。

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摘要

This dissertation addresses two issues related to identifying the impact of money on economic activity using disaggregated monetary and real variables. The first is the negative impact of money on interest rates (the liquidity effect). The first step in doing so is to distinguish between exogenous and endogenous money movements. The second is identifying the transmission mechanism by which interest rates affect economic activity. Recent empirical work on the relationship between money and economic activity using the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) method has focused on relationships between aggregate monetary and aggregate real variables. The difficulty in using aggregated data is that some aggregate variables consist of components that have different determinants or different time patterns in their interaction with other variables. The positive correlation between money and interest rates, and between interest rates and investment that have been found by many empirical studies are inconsistent with theories of the liquidity effect of money and the transmission mechanism with interest rate channels. The main argument in this dissertation is that distinguishing between outside and inside money and between residential and nonresidential investment is crucial for identifying the impact of money and interest rates on economic activity.;Following the recent trend in studying the relationship between money and output, the VAR method is applied here. This dissertation, however, departs from most of the previous work specifically by dealing with the problem of nonstationarity and cointegration in the data series. The presence of nonstationarity and cointegration found in the data requires the use of the Error Correction (EC) model to estimate the dynamic short-run relationships between the variables.;The main conclusion of this study is that exogenous money shocks are correctly measured by nonborrowed reserves (NBR). Movements in NBR produce the expected negative impact of money on interest rates (the liquidity effect) and reflect, to a large extent, the Fed's "leaning against the wind" policy. Disaggregating investment, on the other hand, helps to detect the transmission mechanism by which interest rates affect economic activity. Particularly, the transmission mechanism works through the effect of interest rates on the residential component of investment. Further, the evidence presented in this dissertation underscores the role of residential investment in explaining business cycle fluctuations.
机译:本文研究了与使用分类的货币变量和实际变量确定货币对经济活动的影响有关的两个问题。首先是货币对利率的负面影响(流动性效应)。这样做的第一步是区分外生和内生货币流动。第二是确定利率影响经济活动的传导机制。最近使用向量自回归(VAR)方法进行的关于货币与经济活动之间关系的实证研究集中在总货币与总实际变量之间的关系上。使用汇总数据的困难在于某些汇总变量由与其他变量交互时具有不同决定因素或不同时间模式的组件组成。许多经验研究发现,货币与利率之间,利率与投资之间存在正相关关系,这与货币的流动性效应理论以及利率渠道的传导机制不符。本文的主要论点是,区分外部和内部货币以及区分住宅和非住宅投资对于确定货币和利率对经济活动的影响至关重要。 VAR方法在这里应用。然而,本文通过处理数据系列中的非平稳性和协整性问题而偏离了先前的大部分工作。数据中存在非平稳性和协整性,需要使用误差校正(EC)模型来估计变量之间的动态短期关系。;本研究的主要结论是,非借贷正确地衡量了外生货币冲击储量(NBR)。 NBR的变动给货币带来了预期的利率负面影响(流动性效应),并在很大程度上反映了美联储的“逆风而行”政策。另一方面,分解投资有助于发现利率影响经济活动的传导机制。特别是,传导机制通过利率对住宅投资的影响来发挥作用。此外,本文提供的证据强调了住宅投资在解释商业周期波动中的作用。

著录项

  • 作者

    Shbikat, Gazi Hamdallah.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Tennessee.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Tennessee.;
  • 学科 Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2000
  • 页码 141 p.
  • 总页数 141
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 经济学;
  • 关键词

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