The next threat: A predictive analysis of the continuity of terrorist organizations.

摘要

This study examines the predictive modeling of the survivability of terrorist organizations that will increase the ability of intelligence specialists to make threat assessments. This predictive model will be based on a logistic regression of 50 active and 50 non-active terrorist organizations to determine the probability that a group will become inactive, using the profile characteristics of the groups in conjunction with social, economic and demographic variables.; Applied research is vital to understanding the motivations and characteristics of terrorist groups and should be used to supplement strategic research and international phenomena (Kratcoski, 2001). The research and analysis for this paper was conducted on the premise that the rendering of terrorist groups to a non-operational status can be predicted or facilitated based on a certain set of variables. This research will focus on evaluating the grass root causes or what will be referred to as the ecological conditions that influence both the development and deterioration of terrorist movements in addition to the profile characteristics of these organizations.; Data on the terrorist organizations for this study were collected over a ten-year period from August 1992 to August 2002. Data collection entailed daily visits to websites for news, government and non-governmental organization (NGOs) reports and also literature from printed books, monographs and journals. The websites of larger think tanks were checked on a weekly basis for any newly released reports. Relevant information was recorded in an Access database for later retrieval and transferal to Microsoft Word and an SPSS (statistical package for the social sciences) database. Data on the regional economic, political and social conditions was collected from the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook 2001.