Economic choice modeling: The use of social preference data to inform white-tailed deer management in Michigan.

摘要

White-tailed deer populations in Michigan (Odocoileus virginianus) have risen steadily over the last 30 years, with more than one million deer in the fall counts since 1981. The abundant deer population has created both benefits and costs for the Michigan public. While attitudes toward deer are generally positive, when faced with the costs of abundant deer populations, for example deer damage to agriculture or deer-vehicle collisions, preferences for deer populations may change. With the increasing attention given to public input, wildlife managers need to be informed of preferences for deer populations in light of the benefits and costs associated with deer. Choice experiment surveys are well suited for this task, as they require individuals to make constrained choices, reflecting realistic management situations where trade-offs must be made. This research uses a choice experiment mail survey to estimate choice models of preferences for deer populations and a suite of deer-related attributes. Focus groups and in-person pretests were conducted to determine which deer-related attributes are most relevant to the Michigan public and to facilitate survey development. Deer-related attributes that were used in the survey included the number of deer, the number of mature bucks, herd health, deer damage to residential property, deer damage to agriculture, deer-vehicle collisions, and deer damage to forest ecosystems. The survey was mailed to hunters (N = 1,980) and nonhunters (N = 2,970) in three regions of Michigan: the western upper peninsula, the northeastern lower peninsula, and the southwestern lower peninsula. Response rates ranged from 64% to 66% for hunters and 59% to 63% for nonhunters. Choice model results indicate that, in addition to deer numbers, other deer-related attributes have a significant effect on the utility of both hunter and nonhunter respondents, and both groups will consider the costs associated with deer when making choices among deer-management scenarios. Results suggest that while both groups will make trade-offs for changes in the deer population size, the types and magnitudes of the trade-offs differ among regions and between hunters and nonhunters. For example, for an increase in the deer population, hunters will accept larger increases in most, but not all, of the deer-related attributes than will nonhunters. Comparing the choice model results with other survey components demonstrates that preferences for deer and the related attributes are consistent across different measurement scales. Results of this survey can be used to inform management of the relative importance of different deer-related attributes and the types of trade-offs people are willing to make among them.