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An interdisciplinary analysis of spot and futures markets for a telecommunications commodity.

机译:对电信商品现货和期货市场的跨学科分析。

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摘要

The bandwidth trading concept emerged in the late 1990's during a very optimistic period in the telecommunications sector. To its advocates, bandwidth trading presented an opportunity to lower transaction costs and to improve risk management practices. To its detractors, bandwidth trading and the associated commoditization of bandwidth were seen as misguided or worse.; The issues raised by bandwidth trading are directly related to the interdisciplinary study of spot and futures markets for a telecommunications commodity that we undertake in this dissertation. From a public policy perspective, these markets potentially affect: (1) interconnection arrangements; (2) transaction efficiencies; (3) risk management; and (4) redundancy strategies for network survivability.; We first develop a taxonomy for contrasting types of telecommunications capacity and access services in the context of potential commodities. We then undertake economic and market viability analyses of two transport services.; We study price uncertainty in competitive, interdependent, spot and risk-neutral futures markets for transport services with guaranteed performance. We develop an economic model of two layer markets (trading market layer, aggregate supplier network layer) to study the impact of demand volatility and network outages on patterns of price uncertainty. We assume a short-term time horizon with uncertain, elastic demand and inelastic supply with network outages. Simulations show that for a given trading market layer, the extent to which price uncertainty propagates beyond those markets directly experiencing the equilibrium perturbation depends on the architecture of the aggregate supplier network layer. Hedgers will require this network information to effectively manage price risk. For a longer time horizon, a speculator could reduce price uncertainty more by accurately forecasting demand growth than by accurately forecasting supply growth.; We draw from discussions with industry practitioners to argue that conditions required for well-functioning telecommunications commodity markets are similar—in concept—to those required for any commodity market. Conditions are: contract fungibility, delivery infrastructure, liquid market, price uncertainty, and trading/clearing system. What is unique about the telecommunications commodity is its combination of: (1) being a service, not a tangible good; (2) rapid delivery requirements; (3) tight coupling of buyer and seller during delivery; and (4) market fragmentation.
机译:带宽交易的概念是在1990年代后期出现的,当时电信行业非常乐观。对于其倡导者来说,带宽交易为降低交易成本和改善风险管理实践提供了机会。对于它的反对者来说,带宽交易和相关的带宽商品化被认为是误导或更糟的。带宽交易引发的问题与本文研究的电信商品现货和期货市场的跨学科研究直接相关。从公共政策的角度来看,这些市场可能会影响:(1)互连安排; (2)交易效率; (3)风险管理; (4)网络生存能力的冗余策略;我们首先开发一种分类法,以在潜在商品的背景下对比电信容量和接入服务的类型。然后,我们对两种运输服务进行经济和市场可行性分析。我们研究具有竞争性,相互依存,即期和风险中性的期货市场中具有保证性能的运输服务的价格不确定性。我们开发了一个两层市场(交易市场层,总供应商网络层)的经济模型,以研究需求波动和网络中断对价格不确定性模式的影响。我们假设短期时间范围内不确定,弹性需求,并且由于网络中断而供应缺乏弹性。模拟表明,对于给定的交易市场层,价格不确定性传播到直接经历均衡扰动的那些市场之外的程度取决于总体供应商网络层的体系结构。对冲者将需要此网络信息来有效管理价格风险。对于更长的时间范围,投机者可以通过准确地预测需求增长而不是准确地预测供应增长来减少价格不确定性。我们从与行业从业者的讨论中得出结论,认为运作良好的电信商品市场所需的条件在概念上类似于任何商品市场所需的条件。条件包括:合同可替代性,交付基础设施,流动性市场,价格不确定性以及交易/清算系统。电信商品的独特之处在于其组合:(1)是服务而不是有形商品; (2)快速交货要求; (3)买卖双方之间的紧密耦合; (4)市场分散。

著录项

  • 作者

    Mindel, Joshua L.;

  • 作者单位

    Carnegie Mellon University.;

  • 授予单位 Carnegie Mellon University.;
  • 学科 Engineering System Science.; Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2003
  • 页码 211 p.
  • 总页数 211
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 系统科学;财政、金融;
  • 关键词

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