Tigers on the seas: The perils of ASEAN maritime force expansion.

摘要

As the number and quality of warships in Southeast Asian waters increases, so to does the likelihood of conflict. Southeast Asia's incipient arms race is but one factor that makes the region so susceptible to conflict. External powers have continued to underwrite the relative peace in the region since the withdrawal of American forces from Vietnam. It now appears that the balance of power will soon change. Southeast Asian states vie for power in the coming re-organization.; The liberal consensus that seems to pervade the Western world may obviate the need for realpolitik. There is no such illusion in Southeast Asia. The stakes are high in the region. Aggressive arms procurement programmes equip Southeast Asian militaries with more effective and lethal weapons systems. The likelihood that this could spark conflict grows. Southeast Asian waters, once patrolled by corvettes and patrol craft, are now the domain of frigates, submarines, and the most modern fighter aircraft. With increased range and lethality, these weapons bring the region much closer to conflict. Such weapons also raise the stakes of any regional conflict. In this way, and in the absence of effective military co-operation, the arms procurement programmes of Southeast Asian states make them prone to conflict.; More meaningful military and especially naval co-operation is essential if Southeast Asian states are to assume responsibility for peace and stability in their region. Southeast Asian leaders' promises of further political and economic co-operation are positive steps but must be accompanied by regularized military co-operation.