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Optimization models for renewal pricing and expiration management in the apartment industry.

机译:公寓行业续订价格和到期管理的优化模型。

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摘要

Revenue management is the science and art of offering the right product, to the right customer, at the right time, at the right price, and through the right channel to maximize profits. Revenue management has evolved into a successful and necessary practice in traditional industries like airline, hotel, car rental, cruise line, etc. However, in the apartment industry, revenue management practice is still in its infancy -- only about 9% of the apartment units in the United States use some form of revenue management. Apartment industry business is simple but has the unique aspects of renewals and expiration management.;Apartment residents often request and have a strict preference to a lease term (number of months). Also, operators often accept leases with little attention to their expiration times, just to get the apartment units filled and start generating rental revenues. Several operators also set leases to automatically expire either at the end or middle of an expiring month. Both the residents' preference and operators' shortsighted approach together usually result in leases expiring at a future time when the demand from reoccupying residents is insufficient. As a result, when the leases expire, the apartment units remain vacant for a long time before they are reoccupied, thus incurring vacancy loss, additional turn and marketing costs, revenue dilution, and even displacing higher-rent paying residents in the long run. Vacancy loss arises from a mismatch between demand seasonality and current lease expirations, risky renewal behavior, not factoring the price-demand relationship, and a high number of month-to-month leases. Optimally compensating for these risks and costs while pricing an apartment unit for the requested lease term is revenue-critical. In the apartment industry, expiration management is a revenue management function that optimally prices every available apartment unit based on the lease term and move-in date requested by a resident and the expiration time in the expiring month desired by an operator. Poor expiration management can lead to up to 2% loss in revenues, usually first in the form of lower occupancy.;In this work, we introduce the concept of simultaneous renewal pricing and formalize the concept of expiration management in the apartment industry, both of which are understudied problems. We develop three efficient deterministic optimization models for simultaneous renewal pricing and expiration management. Our first model, the forecasted renewal demand (FRD) model -- a nonlinear pure integer program -- treats renewal demand as an independent stream of demand and formalizes the application of traditional models for simultaneous renewal pricing. Additionally, it introduces the concept of modeling expiration management as constraints with integer variables. The FRD model is a computationally hard problem with a non-linear objective function and linear constraints. Based on the working knowledge of the apartment industry, we add pricing constraints that significantly reduce the search space. This reduces the computational time to a fraction of a second, while retaining business-optimal solutions. Our second model, the variable renewal demand (VRD) model -- a non-linear mixed integer program -- extends the FRD model by treating renewal demand as a function of new resident demand and lease expirations. Our third model, the dynamic demand (DD) model -- a non-linear mixed integer program -- extends the VRD model to account for the dynamic nature of demand over the booking period. All models optimize rents by dynamically looking into the long-term future with network effects while allowing us to embed corporate strategies. The models compensate for the risks and costs associated with demand seasonality, current lease expirations, renewal behavior, price-demand relationship, month-to-month leases, turn-costs, and vacancy loss. We present the data requirements and a characterization of the models. Subsequently, we develop a heuristic algorithm that solves randomized instances of efficient models at an aggregated data level several times to model data uncertainty and produce a converged distribution of optimal prices at the aggregated level. The heuristic algorithm then decomposes the distribution of optimal prices at the aggregated level back into optimal rents by lease term, unit type, move-in week requested by a resident, and move-out week desired by an operator. We introduce statistical heuristics to estimate the best-fit price-demand relationship functions for the three models and the joint probability mass functions of their parameters. We empirically establish the convergence criteria for our models. Using real transactional data from the apartment industry, we conduct a randomized case study of our models and the heuristic algorithm and present the results. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)
机译:收入管理是在正确的时间,正确的价格,通过正确的渠道向正确的客户提供正确的产品以最大化利润的科学技术。收益管理已发展成为航空,酒店,汽车租赁,邮轮等传统行业成功且必要的实践。但是,在公寓行业中,收益管理实践仍处于起步阶段,仅占公寓的9%美国的单位使用某种形式的收入管理。公寓行业的业务很简单,但具有续签和到期管理的独特方面。;公寓居民经常要求并严格选择租赁期限(月数)。另外,运营商通常接受租赁而很少关注其到期时间,只是为了填补公寓单元并开始产生租金收入。几家运营商还设置了租约,以在到期月份的月底或中期自动到期。居民的偏爱和运营商的短视做法通常共同导致租赁在未来某个时间到期,因为重新居住的居民的需求不足。结果,当租赁期满时,公寓单元在被重新占用之前会长期空置,从而导致空置损失,额外的周转和营销成本,收入稀释,甚至从长远来看会取代租金较高的居民。空缺损失是由于需求季节性和当前租赁到期日之间的不匹配,具有风险的续订行为,不考虑价格-需求关系以及大量的逐月租赁而产生的。在为所请求租赁期的公寓单元定价时,最佳地补偿这些风险和成本对收入至关重要。在公寓行业中,到期管理是一项收益管理功能,可根据居民要求的租赁期限和入住日期以及运营商期望的到期月份中的到期时间,为每个可用的公寓单元最佳定价。过期的管理不善可能导致最高2%的收入损失,通常首先是以较低的入住率形式。在这项工作中,我们引入了同时续订定价的概念,并使公寓行业中的过期管理的概念形式化,两者这些都是未被研究的问题。我们开发了三个有效的确定性优化模型,用于同时续订定价和到期管理。我们的第一个模型是预测的更新需求(FRD)模型-非线性纯整数程序-将更新需求视为独立的需求流,并将传统模型的应用正式用于同时更新定价。此外,它引入了将到期管理建模为具有整数变量的约束的概念。 FRD模型是一个具有非线性目标函数和线性约束的计算难题。基于公寓行业的工作知识,我们添加了价格约束,从而大大减少了搜索空间。这样可以将计算时间减少到几分之一秒,同时保留最佳业务解决方案。我们的第二个模型是可变更新需求(VRD)模型-非线性混合整数程序-通过将更新需求视为新居民需求和租赁到期的函数来扩展FRD模型。我们的第三个模型-动态需求(DD)模型-非线性混合整数程序-扩展了VRD模型,以考虑预订期内需求的动态性质。所有模型都通过网络效应动态地展望长期前景,同时允许我们嵌入公司战略,从而优化租金。这些模型补偿了与需求季节性,当前租赁到期,更新行为,价格需求关系,月度租赁,周转成本和空置损失相关的风险和成本。我们提出了数据要求和模型的特征。随后,我们开发了一种启发式算法,可以在聚合数据级别多次求解有效模型的随机实例,以对数据不确定性进行建模,并在聚合级别上生成最优价格的收敛分布。然后,启发式算法将按租赁期限,单位类型,居民要求的迁入周和运营商希望的迁出周分解为合计水平的最优价格分布,重新分解为最优租金。我们引入统计启发式方法来估计这三个模型的最佳拟合价格需求关系函数及其参数的联合概率质量函数。我们凭经验建立模型的收敛标准。利用来自公寓行业的真实交易数据,我们对模型和启发式算法进行了随机案例研究,并给出了结果。 (摘要由UMI缩短。)

著录项

  • 作者单位

    State University of New York at Buffalo.;

  • 授予单位 State University of New York at Buffalo.;
  • 学科 Engineering Industrial.;Operations Research.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2010
  • 页码 201 p.
  • 总页数 201
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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