The effects of coherence -based reasoning on betting decisions

摘要

This research demonstrates some ways in which coherence-based reasoning affects decision making. Participants viewed information about horses in a simulated race and rated each one's chance of winning three separate times before placing a bet, once after betting, and once again after learning the outcome of the race (in hindsight). Ratings of the chosen horse were bolstered within the pre-decision period and immediately after the decision. Pre-decision bolstering occurred even when participants did not expect to bet, and increased with task importance and participant expertise. In hindsight, ratings of the winner increased and ratings of the losers (including the bet horse) decreased. I explain how coherence-based reasoning accounts for these and other findings in decision making and other contexts.