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International linkages and multilateral lending in the post-communist region.

机译:后共产主义地区的国际联系和多边贷款。

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摘要

The focus of the dissertation is the influence of international linkages on the lending decisions from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank) and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to the post-communist states between 1992 and 2007. The central question is to analyze the role of international linkages in aid allocation. Most cross-national studies do not make a clear distinction between aid to developing countries and aid to the post-communist states---states that are considerably more developed than the standard aid recipient but states that also face distinctive challenges of political and economic transition from a command economy and a one-party authoritarian regime. Moreover, the newly emergent post-communist states, and particularly Russia as the Soviet successor state, represent a novel geopolitical challenge. The geopolitical considerations attached to post-communist stability by the United States and Western Europe is an additional factor that may affect aid allocation. Thus it should not be assumed without empirical investigation that these distinctive cases present the lending institutions with the same considerations in aid allocation that would apply to the developing world. While the IMF and World Bank have been extensively studied, the EBRD---a regional bank explicitly established as a "transition bank" rather than a "development bank"---has not. Thus a primary concern of this study is how EBRD aid allocation may differ from that of the IMF and World Bank in the post-communist region.;Using a multi-method research design, I employ a regression analysis along with qualitative case studies. I start with a regression analysis in which I use the log transformations of the outcome variable lending from the IMF, World Bank and EBRD and the continuous explanatory variables to identify explanatory variables hypothesized to predict aid levels. The explanatory variables are: economic need, western connections, past relations with the Bretton Woods institutions, European Union or Commonwealth of Independent States membership, level of democracy, government stability and ethnic conflict. I find that international linkages, particularly as measured by trade ties, are influential in aid allocation from the IMF, World Bank and EBRD in the post-communist region. In addition, I chose Poland, Turkmenistan and Russia as the three case studies to understand the temporal dynamics of aid allocation and the role of international linkages in the relationship between domestic policy-makers and the international financial institutions. I chose Poland and Russia as high-level aid recipients while Turkmenistan is a low-level aid recipient. The three case studies also have varying degree of integration with the international community with Poland as a high level integration case, Turkmenistan as a low level integration case and Russia in an intermediate position. Within the case study analysis, I found that government stability and policy continuity are important determinants of Polish, Turkmen and Russian relations with the international financial institutions.
机译:论文的重点是国际联系对国际货币基金组织(IMF),国际复兴开发银行(世界银行)和欧洲复兴开发银行(EBRD)对后共产主义国家贷款决定的影响。在1992年至2007年之间。中心问题是分析国际联系在援助分配中的作用。大多数跨国研究并未明确区分对发展中国家的援助与对后共产主义国家的援助-这些国家比标准援助接受国要发达得多,但也面临着政治和经济转型的独特挑战来自命令经济和一党专制政权。此外,新出现的后共产主义国家,尤其是作为苏联继任国的俄罗斯,代表着新的地缘政治挑战。美国和西欧对后共产主义稳定的地缘政治考虑是可能影响援助分配的另一个因素。因此,如果不进行实证研究,就不能假定这些特殊情况使贷款机构在援助分配方面具有与发展中国家相同的考虑。尽管对货币基金组织和世界银行进行了广泛研究,但欧洲复兴开发银行(EBRD)是一个明确建立为“过渡银行”而不是“开发银行”的区域银行。因此,本研究的主要关注点是欧洲复兴开发银行的援助分配可能与后共产主义地区的国际货币基金组织和世界银行的分配有何不同。通过多方法研究设计,我采用了回归分析和定性案例研究。我从回归分析开始,在该分析中,我使用了国际货币基金组织,世界银行和欧洲复兴开发银行贷款的结果变量的对数转换,以及连续的解释变量,以识别假设用来预测援助水平的解释变量。解释性变量包括:经济需要,西方联系,与布雷顿森林体系的过往关系,欧洲联盟或独立国家联合体的成员资格,民主水平,政府稳定和种族冲突。我发现,国际联系,特别是按贸易联系来衡量,对后共产主义地区的国际货币基金组织,世界银行和欧洲复兴开发银行的援助分配有影响。此外,我选择了波兰,土库曼斯坦和俄罗斯作为这三个案例研究,以了解援助分配的时间动态以及国际联系在国内政策制定者与国际金融机构之间关系中的作用。我选择波兰和俄罗斯作为高级援助接受国,而土库曼斯坦是低水平援助接受国。这三个案例研究与国际社会的融合程度也不尽相同,波兰是高层次融合案例,土库曼斯坦是低层次融合案例,俄罗斯处于中间地位。在案例分析中,我发现政府的稳定和政策的连续性是波兰,土库曼和俄罗斯与国际金融机构关系的重要决定因素。

著录项

  • 作者

    Romine, Jennifer Elaine.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.;

  • 授予单位 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.;
  • 学科 Economics Finance.;Political Science General.;Political Science International Relations.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2011
  • 页码 199 p.
  • 总页数 199
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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