The new modernization theory: A politico-economic theory of transition.

摘要

Modernization theory is a theory of socio-economic development engendering the democratization of a polity endogenously. Empirical evidence contradicts any such simple linear relationship. Instead, the data predicts a polarization of the distribution of polities and economies into, at least, two distinct groups in the limit. This empirical regularity is, by itself, significant and deserves some explanation for it seems to suggest a polarized world with some non-democratic regimes and some poor countries even in the distant future. However, this finding also casts doubt on the endogenous modernization process, for, to the contrary of what it suggests, there appears to be a quasi-linear relationship between development and democratization instead. As a result, an endogenous view of modernization is now largely discredited.; In this project I suggest how such conflicting empirical evidence can in fact be reconciled with an endogenous modernization viewpoint. I accomplish this task by first demonstrating the importance to politicians of accumulating credibility and of credibly committing themselves in the eyes of their supporters or electorate, and, second, the importance of credibility in conducting successful economic reform. Using this as a premise, I then suggest how politicians that seek to prolong their term in office adopt a survival strategy that necessarily grants them the credibility they seek by pushing them closer and closer to adopting an outcome that is more democratic in nature. This dynamic hence provides the framework for a new theory of modernization that endogenizes political and economic transition.