Development of simulation- and optimization-based decision support methodologies for environmental systems management.

摘要

Environmental pollution has been a pervasive concern across the North America. Effective environmental management should be based on a variety of forecasting and decision-support studies. Generally, simulation models are employed to accomplish the forecasting purpose, and optimization models are useful for providing decision support. However, simulation and optimization modeling of environmental systems are often associated with complexities of interactive, dynamic and uncertain characteristics. Consequently, to facilitate more robust environmental management, advanced simulation and optimization methodologies that are able to reflect these complexities are desired.; In this dissertation research, a set of simulation- and optimization-based decision support methodologies have been developed and applied to cases of environmental management within a western Canadian context. They include the following research components: (a) a 3-D pilot-scale multi-layered physical modeling system for simulating contaminant transport and enhanced in-situ bioremediation processes in the subsurface, (b) a multiphase, multi-component, 3-D numerical model for predicting contaminant transport and fate in the subsurface, (c) a decision support system for managing a contaminated site based on efforts of numerical modeling, risk assessment and remediation design, (d) inexact simulation approaches for system forecasting under uncertainty, (e) hybrid optimization models to address policy analyses and systems planning issues under complexities and uncertainties, and (f) a risk assessment technique based on fuzzy multi-attribute decision analysis and stochastic modeling to address uncertainties that are of different levels of information quality in terms of the simulation outputs and evaluation criteria. For each component, efforts are made in system conceptualization, model development, complexity analysis and case application.; Reasonable results have been obtained from the three simulation-based modeling studies, including the 3-D pilot-scale physical modeling system (PSPMS), the integrated decision support system (IDSS) and the inexact multiphase multi-component simulator (IMMS) for the management of petroleum-contaminated sites. The developed PSPMS provides an effective tool for facilitating the realization of practical on-site conditions and supporting decisions of contaminated-site management. The developed IDSS makes it possible for decision makers to conveniently examine different remediation alternatives through user-friendly interfaces. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)