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Rentierism and political insurgency: A cross-national analysis of transnational rent dependency on terrorism and guerrilla warfare.

机译:食利主义和政治叛乱:跨国公司对恐怖主义和游击战的跨国依赖的跨国分析。

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摘要

Why do some nations suffer significantly higher rates of terrorism and guerrilla attacks? How important are the social, economic, and political opportunities and grievances stemming from international rent dependency? Drawing on the longstanding “greed vs. grievance” debate about the origins of civil war and related arguments about the political economy of rentier states and the “resource curse,” this dissertation examines the importance of multiple forms of international rents on two forms of political violence: (1) terrorist attacks on civilians; and (2) guerrilla attacks on the state and its personnel. Specifically, this dissertation analyzes the relative importance and mediating political mechanisms associated with five types of international rents: (1) exports of oil and natural gas; (2) economic aid and assistance; (3) military aid; (4) worker remittances; and (5) tourist revenues.;Using cross-sectional pooled time series techniques with zero-inflated negative binomial regression applied to a global cross-national dataset for 193 countries from 1971-2008, I examine how multiple dimensions of rentier states and various associated social, political and economic structures affect annual counts of terrorist and guerrilla attacks. The major findings of the study is that international oil and gas exports increase terror and guerrilla attacks, the latter effect largely mediated by economic and political factors. Additionally, nations with state-controlled oil and gas industries are more likely to suffer guerrilla attacks, while nations with privately controlled oil and gas industries are less likely to experience attacks. International military aid has an inverted U-shaped relationship with terrorism but does not affect guerrilla warfare, while economic aid and assistance affects neither. International tourism shows an inverted U-shaped relationship with terror and guerrilla attacks, suggesting that, at lower levels of dependency, political grievances lead to violent conflict. But, as international rent-dependency increases, the state can use rent revenue to suppress, buy-off, or otherwise co-opt dissent. International worker remittance rents increase incidences of terrorism, but not guerrilla warfare. These results show net of zero-inflation controls for the national capacity of international news coverage as gauged by the number of stories in Reuters international news wire.;Other results show that state repression consistently increases both terror and guerrilla attacks. Additionally, insurgency counts differ significantly by regime type. Press freedom is a robust predictor of terror attacks, and, less consistently, guerrilla attacks. In both cases, a free press likely acts as a facilitating factor. Similarly, nations with extensive forest cover or mountainous terrain are more conducive to attacks.;Taken together, this analysis suggests that international rentierism is a significant factor in fostering terrorism and guerrilla violence. Both the political grievances opportunities for sustained insurgent organization associated with international rentier states are important predictors. Given that multiple international rent sources are found to influence terrorism and guerrilla warfare, I find little evidence that rebels activity is spurred on by the existence of “lootable” resources. If so, only oil and gas rents should matter. Future research should address how state-controlled oil exporting and other rentier structures are associated with the political dynamics most relevant to predicting terrorism and guerrilla violence.
机译:为什么有些国家遭受的恐怖主义和游击袭击的发生率高得多?来自国际租金依赖的社会,经济和政治机会与不满有多重要?借助长期以来关于内战起源的“贪婪与不满”辩论以及有关食利者国家政治经济和“资源诅咒”的相关论点,本论文考察了国际租金在两种政治形式中的重要性暴力:(1)对平民的恐怖袭击; (2)游击袭击国家及其人员。具体而言,本文分析了与五种国际租金相关的相对重要性和中介政治机制:(1)石油和天然气出口; (二)经济援助和协助; (三)军事援助; (四)职工汇款; (5)游客的收入。1971年至2008年,我将横断面合并时间序列技术与零膨胀负二项式回归应用于193个国家/地区的全球跨国数据集,研究了食利州和各个相关国家的多个维度社会,政治和经济结构影响着每年发生的恐怖袭击和游击袭击。该研究的主要发现是,国际石油和天然气出口增加了恐怖和游击袭击,后者的影响主要由经济和政治因素介导。此外,拥有国家控制的石油和天然气工业的国家遭受游击袭击的可能性更高,而拥有私人控制的石油和天然气工业的国家遭受袭击的可能性较小。国际军事援助与恐怖主义有着倒U型关系,但不影响游击战,而经济援助和援助则不影响。国际旅游业与恐怖和游击袭击呈倒U型关系,表明在较低的依存度下,政治不满会导致暴力冲突。但是,随着国际租金依赖性的提高,国家可以利用租金收入来压制,买断或以其他方式选择异议。国际工人的汇款租金增加了恐怖主义的发生率,但没有增加游击战争的发生率。这些结果表明,根据路透社国际新闻报道的报道数量,对国际新闻报道的国家能力实行零通货膨胀控制。其他结果表明,国家镇压持续增加恐怖袭击和游击袭击。此外,叛乱计数因政权类型而显着不同。新闻自由是恐怖袭击和游击袭击的有力预测指标。在这两种情况下,新闻自由都可能是促进因素。同样,森林覆盖率高或山地多的国家更容易发动袭击。综合起来,该分析表明,国际食利主义是助长恐怖主义和游击暴力的重要因素。与国际食利者国家相关的持续叛乱组织的政治申诉机会都是重要的预测因素。鉴于发现有多种国际租金来源会影响恐怖主义和游击战,我几乎没有证据表明叛乱分子的活动是由于“可掠夺”资源的存在而刺激的。如果是这样,那么只有石油和天然气租金才是重要的。未来的研究应该解决国家控制的石油出口和其他食利者结构如何与与预测恐怖主义和游击暴力最相关的政治动力相关联。

著录项

  • 作者

    Costello, Matthew J.;

  • 作者单位

    The Ohio State University.;

  • 授予单位 The Ohio State University.;
  • 学科 Political Science General.;Sociology Social Structure and Development.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2012
  • 页码 150 p.
  • 总页数 150
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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