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Stochastic population dynamics approaches to sea ice modelling.

机译:随机种群动力学方法用于海冰建模。

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摘要

The role of seasonal sea ice formation at the poles is complex and closely linked to the Earth's climate. It is thought that the amount of sea ice can have a significant effect on the energies transferred between the atmosphere and the ocean. Understanding the seasonal sea ice process at the poles is therefore of great interest to scientists. Sea ice concentration datasets derived from Earth-orbiting satellites are readily available and contain observations that span several decades. These data, which are both spatial and temporal in nature, can be quite difficult to analyze. We present a spatial nearest-neighbor population model as a candidate for describing the sea ice process. The model is a non-homogeneous Markov process on a space of functions on a lattice, with transitions governed by a collection of rate functions. These rate functions give some insight into the long-term behaviour of the process and in turn can be linked to auxilliary variables. We will discuss various methods for estimating the model parameters. These methods are based on simulations and a finite difference approach using the infinitesimal generator of the process. This population dynamics setting has allowed us to link the spatio-temporal sea ice data of the Antarctic to earth's skin temperature.
机译:极地季节性海冰形成的作用是复杂的,并且与地球的气候密切相关。人们认为,海冰的数量会对大气和海洋之间传递的能量产生重大影响。因此,了解两极的季节性海冰过程对科学家非常重要。来自地球轨道卫星的海冰浓度数据集随时可用,并包含跨越数十年的观测结果。这些数据本质上是时空的,可能很难分析。我们提出一个空间最近邻人口模型作为描述海冰过程的候选者。该模型是晶格上函数空间上的非齐次马尔可夫过程,其过渡由速率函数集合控制。这些速率函数可以深入了解过程的长期行为,进而可以与辅助变量关联。我们将讨论估计模型参数的各种方法。这些方法基于仿真和使用过程的无穷小生成器的有限差分方法。这种人口动态设置使我们能够将南极的时空海冰数据与地球的皮肤温度联系起来。

著录项

  • 作者

    Koulis, Theodoro.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Waterloo (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 University of Waterloo (Canada).;
  • 学科 Statistics.; Environmental Sciences.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2005
  • 页码 205 p.
  • 总页数 205
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 统计学;环境科学基础理论;
  • 关键词

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