Reliability assessment of the Florida electric power network system against hurricanes.

摘要

This study aims to describe the regional performance of the electric power distribution systems (EPDS) against hurricane hazards with theories based on the uncertainty. The uniqueness of this study is that the damage assessment models were proposed along with eight critical devices, i.e. transformers, fuses, reclosers, service lines, feeders, sectionalizers, terminal poles, and switchgears and the Customers Minutes Interrupted (CMI) were able to be estimated. Trees were revealed as the most significant factor to cause power outages. Wind momentum and rainfall were also verified as major contributing factors. In terms of the extent of damage, the number of device breaks (NB) as well as the CMI could be assessed with statistical and stochastic models. The proposed model using two estimable models was examined and determined to be valid for describing power outages. Although this study aimed to describe the power disturbance with measured/recorded weather, tree, and power outage data for a participating power distribution company’s service area, the methodologies as well as proposed damage assessment models could be more widely used to predict the areas serviced by other companies. Furthermore, these ways can be used for indentifying relatively vulnerable or safe zones against hurricanes with a hurricane simulation model. Ultimately, the outcomes of this study can be used to calculate the damage and restoration costs with predicted values of CMI and NB, respectively, so that they help in finding out the cost analysis in order to determine whether an overhead or an underground line is better.