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Exception handling for demand management in a collaborative supply network.

机译:协作供应网络中需求管理的异常处理。

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摘要

Supply networks are becoming increasingly collaborative, with more and more data being shared and decisions taken through intense deliberations. With increased collaboration comes a greater risk of exceptions, which can undermine the collaborative advantages. Handling the exceptions is essential to make such a collaboration system scalable. One such instance that occurs in the operative layer of the supply network is when two entities in a supply network make separate forecasts for orders to satisfy demand for a specific period of time, and run into a exception in the form of a forecast mismatch. In this work, an exception handling mechanism is introduced to resolve such exceptions, by making decisions dynamically based on past performances of each entity's forecasts, making this system a co-system. The main contribution from this work will be a new measure, defined as Forecast Viability, to determine the usefulness of the forecast methods used in the co-system. The performance, in terms of costs, of this mechanism is calculated and then compared with the retailer system and with the performance of a system using a simple average of forecasts as an exception resolution mechanism. In the experiments, when comparing the costs from using the Forecast Viability measure against the retailer system, the new measure yileded reduction in costs of upto 10%. Recommendations are then made based on the experimental results. When adding an additional random demand component about which only one of the entities will have knowledge at that given time, the co-system performance yielded reduction in costs of upto 25% when compared to a retailer system and significant savings when compared to the system using a simple average of forecasts.
机译:供应网络正在变得越来越具有协作性,越来越多的数据被共享,并且通过密集的讨论来制定决策。随着协作的增加,出现例外的风险也会增加,这会破坏协作的优势。处理异常对于使此类协作系统具有可伸缩性至关重要。在供应网络的运营层中发生的一个这样的情况是,供应网络中的两个实体对订单进行了单独的预测以满足特定时间段的需求,并以预测不匹配的形式出现异常。在这项工作中,引入了异常处理机制来解决此类异常,方法是根据每个实体的预测的过去表现动态地做出决策,从而使该系统成为一个共同系统。这项工作的主要贡献将是一种新方法,即定义为“预测生存力”,以确定在协同系统中使用的预测方法的有效性。计算该机制在成本方面的性能,然后与零售商系统以及使用简单预测平均值作为异常解决机制的系统性能进行比较。在实验中,当将使用“预测生存力”度量的成本与零售商系统进行比较时,新度量可以将成本降低多达10%。然后根据实验结果提出建议。当添加一个额外的随机需求组件时,只有一个实体会在给定的时间知道该组件,与零售商系统相比,协同系统的性能可将成本降低多达25%,与使用系统的系统相比,可节省大量成本简单的预测平均值。

著录项

  • 作者

    Kanagaraju, Ezhil.;

  • 作者单位

    Purdue University.;

  • 授予单位 Purdue University.;
  • 学科 Engineering Industrial.
  • 学位 M.S.I.E.
  • 年度 2010
  • 页码 112 p.
  • 总页数 112
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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