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Evolution of the payments system and the long-term demand for money in Canada.

机译:付款系统的演变以及加拿大的长期货币需求。

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摘要

This dissertation starts by examining the evolution of the Canadian payments system from a historical perspective by reviewing the institutional evolution, as well as the development and adoption of some of the newest payment instruments. Two major trends in recent Canadian payment history are revealed, i.e., cash payments are being replaced by non-cash payments and paper-based payment instruments are being replaced by electronic payment instruments.; Next, we adopt a model proposed by Snellman et al. (2000) to conduct a Canadian study of the retail cash payment flows. The estimated results imply that the share of cash, as well as cheques, in overall retail payments in Canada has declined quite considerably. We then investigate the cash substitution process, as well as the electronification of payments in Canada using S-shaped growth curve models. Our results indicate that although the card payments will continue to further substitute for cash, cash will still remain the preferred medium of retail payments in Canada. However, approximately 80% of all payments are forecasted to be electronic in just 20 years.; This dissertation then extends the existing literature on the long-run money demand relationship in Canada by employing information on the payment technology development as an instrument variable to account for financial innovations that might have caused structural shifts in the money demand equation. The econometric methodology employed is cointegration and error-correction modelling. It is found that our measure of financial innovations removes most of the structural breaks in the money demand equation over the sample period. A unique and significant long-run money demand relationship is detected. The short-run dynamic specifications of the VECM system imply the weak exogeneity of output and interest rates.
机译:本文从历史的角度考察加拿大支付体系的发展,回顾制度的演变,以及一些最新支付手段的发展和采用。揭示了加拿大最近的付款历史的两个主要趋势,即现金付款已由非现金付款取代,纸质付款工具已由电子付款工具取代。接下来,我们采用Snellman等人提出的模型。 (2000)对零售现金支付流量进行了加拿大研究。估计结果表明,现金和支票在加拿大总体零售付款中所占的份额已大大下降。然后,我们使用S形增长曲线模型调查现金替代过程以及加拿大的付款电子化过程。我们的结果表明,尽管卡付款将继续代替现金,但现金仍将是加拿大首选的零售付款方式。但是,预计仅在20年内,所有付款中约有80%将是电子的。然后,本文通过采用有关支付技术发展的信息作为工具变量来扩展加拿大有关长期货币需求关系的现有文献,以解释可能导致货币需求方程结构性变化的金融创新。所采用的计量经济学方法是协整和误差校正模型。发现我们的金融创新措施消除了样本期内货币需求方程中的大部分结构性断裂。检测到唯一且重要的长期资金需求关系。 VECM系统的短期动态指标表明产出和利率的外生性较弱。

著录项

  • 作者

    Liao, Weinian.;

  • 作者单位

    McGill University (Canada).;

  • 授予单位 McGill University (Canada).;
  • 学科 Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2005
  • 页码 126 p.
  • 总页数 126
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 财政、金融;
  • 关键词

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