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The impact of trade liberalization on the balance of payments.

机译:贸易自由化对国际收支的影响。

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摘要

This dissertation extends the literature on the macroeconomic impact of trade liberalization in two important ways. The first branch of the research examines factors that may affect the sustainability of imperfectly credible trade liberalization. This branch of the research is motivated by the fact that trade liberalization in many developing countries has often resulted in balance of payment deterioration and a subsequent reversal in the reform. Accordingly, I develop a continuous-time, two-sector general equilibrium model with money in the utility function in order to examine whether the likelihood of policy reversal depends on the rate of tariff reduction or the degree of labor mobility. The analysis shows not only that transitory unemployment increases the likelihood of policy reversal, but also that a gradual reduction in the tariff rate can extend the life of the liberalization episode. However, gradual tariff reduction does not necessarily increase the likelihood of sustained liberalization.; The second branch of the research focuses on the liberalization of capital imports under perfect credibility. Since capital goods are a significant portion of total imports for many countries, the liberalization of import restrictions on capital goods may have important macroeconomic consequences. To analyze this issue, I develop a continuous-time, one-sector model, where noncompetitive imports are combined with a tradable good according to a CES function in order to produce an aggregate, operational unit of capital. The analysis is performed when protection takes the form of a quota and when it takes the form of a tariff. Since tariff liberalization affects tax revenues, the analysis of tariff liberalization allows for a fiscal imbalance and a mechanism by which the fiscal imbalance is covered, namely an inflation tax. The analysis shows that the economy experiences a series of balance of payments deficits following trade liberalization, but an open capital account reduces the magnitude of these deficits.
机译:本文以两种重要方式扩展了关于贸易自由化对宏观经济影响的文献。该研究的第一分支研究了可能影响不完全可信的贸易自由化的可持续性的因素。该研究的这一分支的动机是,许多发展中国家的贸易自由化经常导致国际收支恶化和随后的改革逆转。因此,我建立了一个具有效用函数中的货币的连续时间的两部门一般均衡模型,以检验政策逆转的可能性是否取决于关税降低率或劳动力流动程度。分析表明,短暂的失业不仅增加了政策逆转的可能性,而且关税率的逐步降低可以延长自由化时期的寿命。但是,逐步降低关税并不一定会增加持续自由化的可能性。研究的第二个分支侧重于在完全可信的情况下资本进口的自由化。由于资本货物在许多国家中占进口总额的很大一部分,因此放宽对资本货物的进口限制可能会产生重要的宏观经济后果。为了分析这个问题,我建立了一个连续的单部门模型,在该模型中,根据CES功能将非竞争性进口商品与可交易商品组合在一起,以产生总的可操作资本单位。当保护采取配额形式和关税形式时进行分析。由于关税自由化影响税收,因此对关税自由化的分析考虑到了财政失衡和弥补财政失衡的机制,即通货膨胀税。分析表明,贸易自由化后,经济经历了一系列国际收支赤字,但开放的资本账户减少了这些赤字的数量。

著录项

  • 作者

    Tatum, Robert C.;

  • 作者单位

    Indiana University.;

  • 授予单位 Indiana University.;
  • 学科 Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2005
  • 页码 166 p.
  • 总页数 166
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 经济学;
  • 关键词

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