Exploratory modeling and adaptive strategies for investment in standard services to facilitate public service networks.

摘要

Many contemporary challenges that span multiple policy domains require inter-agency collaborations. To reduce the dilemma between centralization to assure cross-agency interoperability and decentralization to responsibly accomplish individual missions (i.e. achieving economies of scale or scope while retaining autonomy and flexibility), collaborating government agencies may build and share standard services that support or interconnect their diverse specialized applications. Common basic services can be shared to minimize inappropriate redundancies, and standard interfaces may interconnect specialized applications to maximize interdependent synergies. However, heterogeneity among users or network nodes as well as technical and organizational uncertainties makes investment in standard services difficult.; First, using economic analysis to compare several strategies for delivering common services (e.g. a one-size-fits-all strategy, a competition strategy, and a modular strategy), I find that complementary modular services (i.e. basic modules for everyone and add-on modules for high-end users) improve social welfare by eliminating redundancies and expanding customer base. Economic analysis of network effects indicates that decentralized standard interfaces that interconnect the modest scope of heterogeneous systems may maximize social welfare.; Since networks cannot be controlled using a top-down approach, the value of standard services is subject to highly uncertain inter-agency collaborative capability and underlying social networks. I use an agent-based model and social network analysis to simulate how autonomous agencies interactively build and operate cross-agency interoperable systems in a decentralized environment. Exploratory modeling illustrates that modest investment in standard services jointly with mission-centric operation not only enhances mission capabilities but also adaptively mitigates their variances against the varying parameters for technology, interdependency, and social capital.; Finally, I use a proposed investment in nation-wide consolidated public safety wireless networks by the Korean National Emergency Management Agency as a case study. Given network effects and switching costs, exploratory modeling and real option analysis identify the path-dependent values of all the plausible sequential investments against a wide range of future states to help managers "start robust, then adapt". This case study demonstrates that well-designed adaptive strategies mitigate risks and enhance long-term values of investment in consolidated networks (particularly through public-private partnership).