Analyzing Metropolitan Area Measures as Enplanement Growth Predictors for United States Large Hub Airports.

摘要

Cities with the capacity to accommodate increased air traffic demand are in a stronger position for economic growth than those without this capacity. Air traffic demand is growing, as is airport capacity, yet at a much slower rate. In 2007, 15 large hub airports and 7 metropolitan airports reached their planned designed passenger capacity. Eighteen airports will require additional capacity by 2015; this figure will rise to 27 in 2025 if the airport system capacity remains at 2012 levels. Administrators responsible for large hub airport planning could benefit from a growth model that includes variables from the local areas to predict future enplanement growth requirements for servicing large hub airports validated among all 29 large hub airports (representing 100% of these airports) and their surrounding Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Research was conducted to validate if variables from the local areas including population growth rate, secondary education completion growth rate, and employment growth rates would predict an increase in airport enplanements. The purpose of this quantitative, quasi-experimental study was to investigate the specific independent variables of population growth rate, secondary education completion growth rate, and employment growth rates to determine if they are predictors of large hub airport enplanement growth. These data were retrieved from online and publically available historical databases within the primary organizations of the Census Bureau, Department of Transportation, Department of Labor, and the Federal Aviation Administration. The results from the multiple regression analysis indicate the independent variable of employment growth rate is a significant predictor of enplanement growth rate among the 29 U.S. large hub airports, while population growth rate and secondary education completion growth rate are not. A stepwise regression analysis was conducted to consider which independent variable, if any, was the best predictor for large hub airport enplanement growth. This analysis resulted in identifying only employment growth rate, as the other two independent variables were not considered significant predictors. The primary recommendation is local MSA population growth rates and local MSA secondary education completion rates not be considered as common predictors for large hub airport enplanement growth rates among all 29 U.S. large hub airports.