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Importance sampling for Bayesian networks: Principles, algorithms, and performance.

机译:贝叶斯网络的重要性采样:原理,算法和性能。

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摘要

Bayesian networks (BNs) offer a compact, intuitive, and efficient graphical representation of uncertain relationships among the variables in a domain and have proven their value in many disciplines over the last two decades. However, two challenges become increasingly critical in practical applications of Bayesian networks. First, real models are reaching the size of hundreds or even thousands of nodes. Second, some decision problems are more naturally represented by hybrid models which contain mixtures of discrete and continuous variables and may represent linear or nonlinear equations and arbitrary probability distributions. Both challenges make building Bayesian network models and reasoning with them more and more difficult.; In this dissertation, I address the challenges by developing representational and computational solutions based on importance sampling. I First develop a more solid understanding of the properties of importance sampling in the context of Bayesian networks. Then, I address a fundamental question of importance sampling in Bayesian networks, the representation of the importance function. I derive an exact representation for the optimal importance function and propose an approximation strategy for the representation when it is too complex. Based on these theoretical analysis, I propose a suite of importance sampling-based algorithms for (hybrid) Bayesian networks. I believe the new algorithms significantly extend the efficiency, applicability, and scalability of approximate inference methods for Bayesian networks. The ultimate goal of this research is to help users to solve difficult reasoning problems emerging from complex decision problems in the most general settings.
机译:贝叶斯网络(BNs)提供了域中变量之间不确定关系的紧凑,直观,有效的图形表示,并且在过去的二十年中已在许多学科中证明了它们的价值。然而,在贝叶斯网络的实际应用中,两个挑战变得越来越关键。首先,真实模型的规模达到了数百甚至数千个节点。其次,一些决策问题更自然地由混合模型表示,该模型包含离散变量和连续变量的混合,并且可以表示线性或非线性方程式和任意概率分布。这两个挑战都使建立贝叶斯网络模型和进行推理变得越来越困难。在本文中,我通过开发基于重要性抽样的代表性和计算解决方案来应对挑战。首先,我对贝叶斯网络中重要性抽样的属性有了更扎实的理解。然后,我解决了贝叶斯网络中重要性抽样的一个基本问题,即重要性函数的表示。我推导了最佳重要性函数的精确表示形式,并提出了一种过于复杂的表示形式的近似策略。基于这些理论分析,我提出了一套用于(混合)贝叶斯网络的基于重要性抽样的算法。我相信新算法将大大扩展贝叶斯网络近似推理方法的效率,适用性和可扩展性。这项研究的最终目标是帮助用户解决在最一般的情况下由复杂的决策问题引起的困难的推理问题。

著录项

  • 作者

    Yuan, Changhe.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Pittsburgh.;

  • 授予单位 University of Pittsburgh.;
  • 学科 Statistics.; Computer Science.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2006
  • 页码 114 p.
  • 总页数 114
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 统计学;自动化技术、计算机技术;
  • 关键词

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