Large-scale integration of wing power generation on power system planning.

摘要

Because of environment concerns and energy security, research into the impact of increasing wind penetration on system planning and operation has drawn a major attention. The most obvious obstacle of wind utilization is its variability and average predictability. To achieve a high level of wind penetration, an accurate wind power forecasting tool needs to be built. This thesis proposes a novel short term wind forecasting model based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and combination of Support vector machines (Svm). With the assistant of preliminary applications, the crucial roles that wind power forecasting tool plays are specified and analyzed, i.e. saving system reserve and improving wind trading price. It is also a big concern to evaluate the wind penetration limit of an existing electric power system since high level of wind penetration will cause various stability problems. This thesis presents a method of estimating the instantaneous wind power penetration limit by analyzing the self-organized criticality (SOC) of the power system, based on the complexity system theory. SOC is based on the idea that complex behavior can develop spontaneously in certain many-body systems whose dynamics vary abruptly, i.e. the nonlinear dynamics of a complex system under disturbances organized the global system state near to the state that is marginal to major disruptions, often as cascades. With the assistant of the slightly modified IEEE 30-bus system and 118-bus system, case studies have revealed the self-organized criticality of the power system are companied by the increased ratio of the wind power output to the total load demand, i.e. the instantaneous wind power penetration. Furthermore, this thesis focuses on the impacts of wind capacity penetration on the AGC system and estimation of the wind capacity penetration as limited by NERC's new AGC performance standards, CPS1 and CPS2. With the realistic simulations based on the representative and historical system data from the China Southern Power Grid power system, it has been revealed that both CPS1 and CPS2 have been deteriorated as being companied by the increasing installed wind generation capacity normalized by the total generation capacity on the system, i.e. the installed capacity penetration.